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pilight



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PostPosted: 10/16/14 12:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Like with Wauters being the 'worst pick ever'. There were one or two decent options that year, but most of the other options would have been as sucky or even suckier.


There are a couple of potential ways to resolve that.

You could compare each player to the player whose score suggests they should have been taken in that slot. Compare #6 pick Jacinta Monroe to the 6th best player in her draft. The downside of that is that #1 picks can never be better than zero. Tina Charles is more than 100 points better than anyone in her draft, but still scores a zero because taking her #1 was the right choice. Basically, it only measures how wrong a pick is, it doesn't say anything about how right it was.

Alternatively, you could compare a player to the best player who was drafted after her. Compare #2 pick Marissa Coleman to the best player taken #3 or lower in her draft. The problem here is that drafts don't always distribute evenly. A thin draft like 2002 would tend to overrate the last good player taken.



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PostPosted: 10/16/14 1:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Emma Meesseman,



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Jet Jaguar



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PostPosted: 10/16/14 4:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<<<------Ahemmmm!!!! Well, could have been if the Mercury weren't stupid... Confused



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 10/16/14 4:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It depends on how you do the math ... the difference is 69% of the lower number ...



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PUmatty



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PostPosted: 10/16/14 4:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
It depends on how you do the math ... the difference is 69% of the lower number ...


That means that No. 1 is 69% higher.

Regardless, it is a big difference.


Shades



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PostPosted: 10/16/14 7:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Which third round pick has had the longest WNBA career?

I know Hammon was undrafted so she's the most impressive in that regard, but let's keep it to third round. I have a hunch it's a battle between Kraaveld and Houston, but I'd rather refer to the data base than do the math myself.



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PostPosted: 10/16/14 7:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
Which third round pick has had the longest WNBA career?


Taj McWilliams

Among non-ABL players it is Dominique Canty

Among players not from the 1999 draft it is Jia Perkins



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pilight



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PostPosted: 10/18/14 10:08 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Richyyy wrote:
Like with Wauters being the 'worst pick ever'. There were one or two decent options that year, but most of the other options would have been as sucky or even suckier.


You could compare each player to the player whose score suggests they should have been taken in that slot. Compare #6 pick Jacinta Monroe to the 6th best player in her draft.


Wauters doesn't crack the top 10 worst picks this way.

-146 Natalia Zasulskaya #12 in 1999
-127 Lisa Willis #5 in 2006
-117 Jackie Stiles #4 in 2001
-111 LaToya Thomas #1 in 2003
-111 Pam McGee #2 in 1997
-100 Tammi Reiss #5 in 1997
-99.5 Kelly Miller #2 in 2001
-97.5 Clarissa Davis-Wrightsil #22 in 1999
-94 Sandora Irvin #3 in 2005
-93.5 Jamila Wideman #3 in 1997

The Infamous Z-Woman was without a doubt the worst draft pick ever.

The three from 1997 are partly because nearly everyone from that draft got to play. The stakes were a lot higher than in any other draft.

Davis-Wrightsil just demonstrates how ridiculous the 1999 draft was that the 22nd best player scored 109. Even in a good draft year, say 2004, a score of 109 puts you in the top 10. A player who scored 109 from 2003 would have been the 2nd best player in the draft.


Anyway, the 10 best picks by this method are almost all late round gems...

134.5 Camille Little #17 in 2007
130 Cathrine Kraayeveld #27 in 2005
120 Sandy Brondello #34 in 1998
116.5 Leilani Mitchell #25 in 2008
111 Cheryl Ford #3 in 2003
110.5 Charde Houston #30 in 2008
110 Kalana Greene #13 in 2010
106.5 Elaine Powell #50 in 1999
104 Jia Perkins #35 in 2004
100.5 Tammy Sutton-Brown #18 in 2001



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PostPosted: 10/20/14 4:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


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PostPosted: 10/20/14 6:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.

So do you judge the pick on

a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games?



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PostPosted: 10/20/14 7:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.

So do you judge the pick on

a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games?


A player who doesn't show up to play is of no use at all. That means you have to sign someone to replace her. Today you could easily find a passable player to fill the roster spot. In 2000, when there were 16 teams and the league just expanded by four teams, the pool of available talent was at an all time low. That makes a no-show player even more damaging than she would be today. Tulsa misses Liz Cambage much less than Cleveland missed Wauters,


Even if Wauters had shown up she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Yeah, she's better than Latoya Thomas. Probably better than McCarville or Harding. Too early to tell about Chiney Ogwumike. That's about the extent of other #1s she would rank ahead of. Nneka Ogwumike is already as good or better than Wauters ever was. I can't fathom any reason to take peak!Wauters over peak!Dydek. Past that the comparisons become ridiculous.



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CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 10/21/14 11:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
ClayK wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.

So do you judge the pick on

a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games?


A player who doesn't show up to play is of no use at all. That means you have to sign someone to replace her. Today you could easily find a passable player to fill the roster spot. In 2000, when there were 16 teams and the league just expanded by four teams, the pool of available talent was at an all time low. That makes a no-show player even more damaging than she would be today. Tulsa misses Liz Cambage much less than Cleveland missed Wauters,


Even if Wauters had shown up she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Yeah, she's better than Latoya Thomas. Probably better than McCarville or Harding. Too early to tell about Chiney Ogwumike. That's about the extent of other #1s she would rank ahead of. Nneka Ogwumike is already as good or better than Wauters ever was. I can't fathom any reason to take peak!Wauters over peak!Dydek. Past that the comparisons become ridiculous.


Good point (and a fair one) about players not showing up and having to replace them (I feel like I am Kevin Pelton about to go into the WARP discussion). And context is certainly important. The talent level in the league is certainly greater now, both in terms of quality of players and depth.

At the same time, Wauters played in all or part of 8 WNBA seasons and averaged 10.8 points (on 53.8 shooting) and 5.5 rebounds per game for her career.

Mills played three full WNBA seasons and a total of nine games in two other seasons (meaning all or part of 5 WNBA seasons) and averaged 2.7 points (on 38.3 percent shooting) and 2.6 rebounds for her career.

Wauters was the #1 pick in 2000; Mills was #2. Wauters may be the worst #1 pick, but I would still take her over Mills. Wauters performed when she did show up; Mills never performed.


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PostPosted: 10/21/14 11:13 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Disagreements or questions aside, kudos to pilight for putting all of this together and giving us interesting topics for debate and discussion!!!


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PostPosted: 10/21/14 5:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
ClayK wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.

So do you judge the pick on

a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games?


A player who doesn't show up to play is of no use at all. That means you have to sign someone to replace her. Today you could easily find a passable player to fill the roster spot. In 2000, when there were 16 teams and the league just expanded by four teams, the pool of available talent was at an all time low. That makes a no-show player even more damaging than she would be today. Tulsa misses Liz Cambage much less than Cleveland missed Wauters,


Even if Wauters had shown up she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Yeah, she's better than Latoya Thomas. Probably better than McCarville or Harding. Too early to tell about Chiney Ogwumike. That's about the extent of other #1s she would rank ahead of. Nneka Ogwumike is already as good or better than Wauters ever was. I can't fathom any reason to take peak!Wauters over peak!Dydek. Past that the comparisons become ridiculous.


If you say that Nneka is a better player than Wauters already, you could easily make the same argument for Chiney. Her rookie season was more impressive than any of Wauters' years in the WNBA. I know you meant that it's too early to tell whether she'll have a better career, but I'd say that she's well on her way, having already surpassed Wauters quite a few of Ann's career highs...


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PostPosted: 10/21/14 10:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Simply ranking the players by career Win Shares, it's apparent that we could redraft 2000 into infinity and Wauters would always be one of the first two players selected. For a quick frame of reference, Chiney Ogwumike has already accumulated 4.7 career Win Shares, Nneka is up to 17.0, and Prahalis is at -0.8 through 2014:
Code:
 #  Player               Tm   CrWS
--  -------------------  ---  ----
 1  Ann Wauters          CLE  19.8
 6  Betty Lennox         MIN  17.1
 9  Kamila Vodichkova    SEA  13.4
51  Kristen Rasmussen    UTA  12.9
21  Adrian Williams      PHO   6.0
17  Helen Darling        CLE   5.7
26  Jurgita Streimikyte  IND   4.6
63  Nicky McCrimmon      LAS   3.1
 8  Tamicha Jackson      DET   2.6
23  Stacey Thomas        POR   2.4
16  Elena Shakirova      HOU   1.5
 4  Cintia dos Santos    ORL   1.4
 5  Grace Daley          MIN   1.4
11  Summer Erb           CHA   1.4
25  Charisse Sampson     SEA   1.2
14  Katy Steding         SAC   1.1
30  Stacy Clinesmith     SAC   0.9
22  Marla Brumfield      MIN   0.8
 7  Lynn Pride           POR   0.7
10  Maylana Martin       MIN   0.7
35  Stacy Frese          UTA   0.6
27  Tiffany Travis       CHA   0.5
 2  Tausha Mills         WAS   0.4
18  Tonya Washington     WAS   0.2
24  Keitha Dickerson     MIN   0.2
12  Naomi Mulitauaopele  UTA   0.1
13  Olga Firsova         NYL   0.1
28  Madinah Slaise       DET   0.1
31  Paige Sauer          LAS   0.1
56  Shanele Stires       MIN   0.1
58  Renee Robinson       IND   0.1
15  Nicole Kubik         LAS   0.0
29  Desiree Francis      NYL   0.0
46  Rhonda Banchero      SAC  -0.1
52  Roman Hamzova        ORL  -0.1
40  Milena Flores        MIA  -0.2
42  Usha Gilmore         IND  -0.2
45  Jessica Bibby        NYL  -0.2
57  Katrina Hibbert      SEA  -0.2
53  Shantia Owens        PHO  -0.3
 3  Edwina Brown         DET  -0.4
20  Jannon Roland        ORL  -0.5
32  Andrea Garner        HOU  -0.6
19  Jameka Jones         MIA  -0.8


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PostPosted: 10/22/14 10:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That list brings back a lot of memories ... some good, some not.



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PostPosted: 10/22/14 7:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
That list brings back a lot of memories ... some good, some not.


Yeah, lots of good memories, including CLE, UTA, DET, POR, HOU, ORL, CHA, SAC, MIA, ...



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PostPosted: 10/23/14 3:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

p_d_swanson wrote:
Simply ranking the players by career Win Shares, it's apparent that we could redraft 2000 into infinity and Wauters would always be one of the first two players selected. For a quick frame of reference, Chiney Ogwumike has already accumulated 4.7 career Win Shares, Nneka is up to 17.0, and Prahalis is at -0.8 through 2014:

Win Shares is a completely meaningless stat that in no way should be used to evaluate a player. How many win shares do you expect a player to get on a team that only won 7 games? And the other seasons by Prahalis she didn't play enough to even use that stat, meaningless as it is.



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PostPosted: 10/23/14 5:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Jet Jaguar wrote:
How many win shares do you expect a player to get on a team that only won 7 games?

DeWanna Bonner finished with 3.2. Prahalis was 13th on the team.



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PostPosted: 10/25/14 11:58 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Jet Jaguar wrote:
How many win shares do you expect a player to get on a team that only won 7 games?

DeWanna Bonner finished with 3.2. Prahalis was 13th on the team.

Shows how much you know. You pretend to be an expert at everything. And you aren't. You're comparing her to players who hardly got any time. .5, .6, -.3, -.6, like it really matters. None of them are good. And you can't expect them to be on a bad team. That's why it's a completely useless stat for evaluating players. I guess Andrea Riley is a better player because her Win Shares was a higher negative number? Rolling Eyes



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PostPosted: 10/28/14 9:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

KEITHA DICKERSON. Small 4 from Texas Tech who actually stuck on a team. Wow, blast from the past.


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PostPosted: 10/12/15 10:18 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How does the class of 2011 stack up?

As a whole the class produced 1755.5 value points. That's 10th best out of 15 drafts. It's the best since 2008.

Nobody in the class of 2011 came close to being the worst pick ever. Liz Cambage, the #2 pick, grades out 9th and Amber Harris, the #4 pick, grades out 12th on the worst pick ever list.

Ta'Shia Phillips ranks as the worst ever #8 pick. Jasmine Thomas ranks as the best ever #12 pick. Karima Christmas ranks as the best ever #23 pick. Krystal Thomas ranks as the best ever #36 pick.

The steal of the draft was Jasmine Thomas, who played all 170 games, starting 115 of them, as the #12 pick.

The bust of the 2011 draft was Liz Cambage, who played 53 games (27 starts) as the #2 pick.



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PostPosted: 09/20/16 8:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How does the class of 2012 stack up?

As a whole the class produced 1296 value points. Only 2003 had fewer.

Nobody in the class of 2012 came close to being the worst pick ever

Astan Dabo is the first #9 pick to not play in the league, and thus was the worst ever #9 pick. Nobody in the 2012 draft was the best ever at their draft slot.

Steal of the draft was Lynetta Kizer, who played 146 games, with 27 starts, as the #29 pick.

The bust of the 2012 draft was Samantha Prahalis, who played 41 games (30 starts) as the #6 pick.


NOTE: I made the assumption that Nneka Ogwumike would be All WNBA this season and no one else from the class of 2012 would join her. If this proves to be in error, I will refigure.



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PostPosted: 09/20/16 8:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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PostPosted: 09/20/16 8:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:

LMAO.




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PostPosted: 10/05/17 5:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How does the class of 2013 stand up?

As a whole the class produced 1777.5 points, the most since the 2008 class.

Nobody in the class came close to being the worst pick ever.

Emma Meesseman ranks as the best #19 pick ever by a wide margin. She's also the steal of the draft with 159 games, 124 starts, and an All Star appearance.

The bust of the draft was Tianna Hawkins. 124 games, one start, puts her 49.9 points below the average #6 pick.



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PostPosted: 10/05/17 9:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Who do you determine bust of the draft? #7 pick Toni Young was out of the league quickly, and #5 pick Bone didn't even play this season and might be blacklisted. At least Hawkins is still playing and was on an active roster.



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PostPosted: 10/05/17 9:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
Who do you determine bust of the draft? #7 pick Toni Young was out of the league quickly, and #5 pick Bone didn't even play this season and might be blacklisted. At least Hawkins is still playing and was on an active roster.


Their score (based on games, starts, All Star appearances, All WNBA Teams) are compared to the average player at their draft spot. Hawkins got 62.5 points, the average #6 pick is 112.4 so she's 49.9 under average.

Bone, despite sitting out this season, is right at the average #5 pick. She's played more games than Hawkins, started more than half of them, and made an All Star game.

Young is also well below average for her slot, but there's an enormous drop off from the average #6 to the average #7. #6 picks average 112.4 Value Points. #7 picks average 68.4. Look at the lists...

Sue Wicks 1997
Cindy Blodgett 1998
Crystal Robinson 1999
Betty Lennox 2000
Deanna Nolan 2001
Tamika Raymond 2002
Gwen Jackson 2003
Nicole Ohlde 2004
Temeka Johnson 2005
Candice Dupree 2006
Bernice Mosby 2007
Crystal Langhorne 2008
Briann January 2009
Jacinta Monroe 2010
Danielle Robinson 2011
Samantha Prahalis 2012
Tianna Hawkins 2013

Tora Suber 1997
Tracy Reid 1998
Tonya Edwards 1999
Lynn Pride 2000
Svetlana Abrosimova 2001
Sheila Lambert 2002
Aiysha Smith 2003
Vanessa Hayden 2004
Kara Braxton 2005
Shona Thorburn 2006
Katie Gearlds 2007
Essence Carson 2008
Courtney Paris 2009
Danielle McCray 2010
Kayla Pedersen 2011
Kelley Cain 2012
Toni Young 2013

The #6s are almost all better and often a lot better.



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