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One-and-done unintended consequence?
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J-Spoon



Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: 09/16/17 9:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Same format but how about

1-3-3-5

NY and Conn both played LA and Minny pretty well in the regular season, and probably could win a game or two in a 5 game series.

That said they lost and the other teams won and that is that. Also PX and Washington have bigger star appeal and I'm sure ESPN and casual fans are happy they get to see DT, Griner and EDD. (If that actually means anything, I'm not sure it does, but if it does PX and Washington have that over Cann and NY as well as winning the very important 1 and dones they had to win to advance.)


mercfan3



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PostPosted: 09/16/17 10:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I just really don't feel bad for the 3 and 4 seeds who can't get the job done after a week off and on their home court.



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J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 09/16/17 10:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mercfan3 wrote:
I just really don't feel bad for the 3 and 4 seeds who can't get the job done after a week off and on their home court.


Actually while 3 and 4 are making excuses I would like to add I think the week off hurts more than helps when you're going up against a team that just won a win or go home game a few days earlier.

I can't remember question for anyone who can, I know NY lost in 16 as the 3 seed, did the 4 seed advance to the semis?


pilight



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PostPosted: 09/16/17 10:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
I can't remember question for anyone who can, I know NY lost in 16 as the 3 seed, did the 4 seed advance to the semis?


Yes, #4 seed Chicago reached the semifinals



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Aladyyn



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PostPosted: 09/17/17 3:44 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Look at how the Lynx came out in game 1 and stop making excuses.


Richyyy



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PostPosted: 09/17/17 7:20 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It really depends on the team. With all the old legs in Minnesota, they probably appreciated the rest; with New York having won 10 straight they'd probably rather have kept rolling without a break.

I understand the perspective that the 3/4 seeds ought to be able to take care of business on their own floor in a one-off game. But I feel like if we're going to play a 204-game regular season it should be worth more. There's too much randomness in one game of basketball for teams that earned 20+ wins and a top-4 seed to potentially be done in 40 minutes.



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Luuuc



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PostPosted: 09/17/17 8:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
It really depends on the team. With all the old legs in Minnesota, they probably appreciated the rest; with New York having won 10 straight they'd probably rather have kept rolling without a break.

I understand the perspective that the 3/4 seeds ought to be able to take care of business on their own floor in a one-off game. But I feel like if we're going to play a 204-game regular season it should be worth more. There's too much randomness in one game of basketball for teams that earned 20+ wins and a top-4 seed to potentially be done in 40 minutes.

How about we take as much randomness out it as possible by calling for a review every 2 minutes. Best of both worlds then, right?
Extra bonus: that 40 minutes will feel like 3 hours.
/wnba



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NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 09/17/17 9:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Aladyyn wrote:
Look at how the Lynx came out in game 1 and stop making excuses.


I'm not making excuses. NY lost. I've repeatedly said they have to build differently for one and dones. Coming out in game 1 in a best-of-5 is different than playing a one-and-out, so the Minnesota comparison is pointless.

All I'm saying is the reason for doing this in the first place...for TV and theoretically entertainment value..isn't being accomplished anyway. And this system may be making it worse. If the reason for doing something isn't producing the desired result...

We see time and time again lower NCAA tournament seeds pull upsets, and those teams are probably generally further apart in talent than the top 12 teams in the world's best women's league are. It's a system that will continue to provide an increased likelihood for randomness.



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 09/17/17 11:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

All playoffs negate the importance of the regular season ... it's just a matter of degree.

And don't forget that if you have eight teams in the playoffs, the likelihood of making any in-area profit is very small in the first round. If the owners lose money and nobody watches on TV, why play the extra games?

And yes, a one-game playoff is less likely to produce the "better" team as the winner than a three-game playoff, but it's a tradeoff. As has been pointed out, the league plays 204 games to determine the best teams -- that's pretty much already been decided before the playoffs begin.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 09/20/17 4:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This is an interesting discussion but the math, at least from an odds perspective, would suggest that the team with the home court advantage would actually have a slightly higher chance of advancing in a one game playoff than in a three game playoff. To calculate this I took two different scenarios, In the first I considered both teams to be equal, and the home team was assigned a 2/1 chance of winning. In a one game playoff the higher seeded team would win 2 out of three times. In a three game playoff each team would sweep 6 out of 27 series, in a 3 game series the higher seeded team would win 10 of 27 and the lower seeded team would win 5. Therefore in a 1 game series the higher seeded team wins 67% but in a 3 game series the higher seeded team wins only 59%. I believe this example is most appropriate for this year because the differences in records could easily be ascribed to the injuries to Griner and Delle Donne during the regular season.

But even if we consider that the higher seeded team is better than the lower seeded team the result is the same. In this scenario I considered the higher seeded team to be a 5/2 favorite at home and the lower seeded team to be only a 3/2 favorite at home. In this case the higher seeded team would sweep 10 of 35 times while the lower seed would sweep only 6 of 35. In series that goes 3 games the higher seed would win 95 out of 133 and the lower seed only 38. Therefore in a one game series the higher seed would win 71% and in a 3 game series it would win only 67%.


pilight



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PostPosted: 09/20/17 4:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

We have actual data on this. The WNBA has had 13 one-game playoffs in its history. The home team won eight of them, 62%. There have been 107 three game series in league history. The team with home advantage won 79 of them, 74%.

Granted it's a small sample size for the one-gamers, but it's also trending badly for the home teams. The last two years road teams have won half the one-game playoffs.



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Aladyyn



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PostPosted: 09/20/17 5:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In how many of the 13 series was the home team actually not the "better" team?


pilight



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PostPosted: 09/20/17 5:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
But even if we consider that the higher seeded team is better than the lower seeded team the result is the same. In this scenario I considered the higher seeded team to be a 5/2 favorite at home and the lower seeded team to be only a 3/2 favorite at home. In this case the higher seeded team would sweep 10 of 35 times while the lower seed would sweep only 6 of 35. In series that goes 3 games the higher seed would win 95 out of 133 and the lower seed only 38. Therefore in a one game series the higher seed would win 71% and in a 3 game series it would win only 67%.


Depends on whether you use the 1-2 format or the 1-1-1. Under the former, your 67% is correct. Under the latter, the home team only wins 64% of series.

Of course we've had a substantial number of three game series and the team with home advantage has won far more often than your model suggests: 79/107, 74%.



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