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Aladyyn
Joined: 23 Jul 2017 Posts: 1560 Location: Czech Republic
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Posted: 09/17/17 6:49 pm ::: Washington Mystics 2018 |
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After the first season of the EDD era, we might be left with more questions than answers. Our 5 best players have barely even practiced together, let alone play in games. If Thibault still wants to go with the big lineup, the starting 5 would project as this next year:
Toliver
Hill
Delle Donne
Meesseman
Thomas
This lineup looks dynamite, but presents us with a number of issues:
1) How do we get enough touches for the 4 scorers?
Delle Donne's FGA was already the lowest of her career, I doubt that she gives up any more. Toliver doesn't have much to give up, since all her shots are 3s that you don't want other players to take anyways.
2) The Cloud/TRP conundrum
These 2 players just shouldn't play together much at all. 2 perimeter players with no outside game is not something this team can get away with. Both are excellent defenders and can create shots for others, so their skillsets overlap and having one or the other on the floor doesn't change the gameplan much. So ideally you'd have one of these players in the starting lineup.
Possible solutions:
1) Meesseman is the starting C
This is actually what the Mystics started with in the first 4 games of the season. It didn't work great but I wouldn't read too much into that because of the weird circumstances. Emma is unlikely to be able to play 30 minutes as a WNBA 5, but she should be able to handle 10-15 minutes. This opens up a starting spot for TRP, but is a significant downgrade in terms of rebounding and defense.
2) One of Meesseman/Hill comes off the bench
Both players have experienced this during the season for 2-3 games and neither did particularly well. Not sure how either would be able to adapt to the role.
3) One of TRP/Cloud is traded
No.
4) Our best players learn how to play off of each other well and everyone is happy. Cloud improves her 3pt shot and now teams actually have to guard her. This is the dream scenario.
The depth chart without any roster moves or additions (Sanders, draft picks) looks something like this for next season:
Toliver/Latta/Cloud
Hill/SWK/TRP/(Cloud)
Delle Donne/TRP/Cloud
Meesseman/Delle Donne/Hawkins
Thomas/Hawkins/Meesseman
So basically it's a mess and Thibault will have to figure it out.
Thoughts?
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UK1996
Joined: 03 Sep 2015 Posts: 403
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Posted: 09/17/17 8:45 pm ::: |
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It can take some teams a couple of seasons to really gel in a short WNBA season. I would explore trading TRP or Cloud, but wouldn't pull the trigger unless it was worthwhile. I think possibly getting a pass first backup point guard could really help the team. Someone like Lindsay Allen backing up Toliver who can really feed the ball. Personally, I'd keep the same players and hope they really gel. If nothing is imporoved by midway through the first half of the season. Explore your options. Barring major changes to the roster, I would keep TRP in the starting lineup and assign her the toughest assignment. Hill could bring a scoring punch off the bench. Target a backup Center or SF. Will Sanders return? Will Hightower be resigned? I think Sanders might not since World's is next year.
Toliver/Cloud/Latta
TRP/Hill/SWK/Hightower?
EDD/#17 or FA
Meeseman/Hawkins
Thomas/#7/Sanders?
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Last edited by UK1996 on 09/17/17 9:49 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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RP
Joined: 17 Jul 2010 Posts: 1299
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Posted: 09/17/17 9:18 pm ::: |
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Hill is better suited for the sixth woman role on this team, which is what happened anyway before her injury. A lineup cannot have more than three high-usage players. Hill has value, but not enough to justify the lost touches for Meesseman or Toliver.
As far as the roster, top priority should be a more athletic center to split minutes with Thomas.
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hangtyme24
Joined: 21 May 2006 Posts: 2445
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Posted: 09/18/17 12:01 am ::: |
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RP wrote: |
Hill is better suited for the sixth woman role on this team, which is what happened anyway before her injury. A lineup cannot have more than three high-usage players. Hill has value, but not enough to justify the lost touches for Meesseman or Toliver.
As far as the roster, top priority should be a more athletic center to split minutes with Thomas. |
Suppose McCowen declares early and she and Russell are both available when the Mystics pick. Which center would you prefer?
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Mysticsfan12
Joined: 19 Sep 2014 Posts: 497
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Posted: 09/18/17 1:43 am ::: |
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That plum trade that they declined was intriguing...
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Aladyyn
Joined: 23 Jul 2017 Posts: 1560 Location: Czech Republic
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zune69
Joined: 27 May 2010 Posts: 8185
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Posted: 09/18/17 6:32 am ::: |
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Move Emma to the bench.She can play 26-32 minutes depending on how she performs....This would be the best move for Emma and EDD....Delle donne needs more space to operate on offense.The fact that EDD went from 15.8 to 12.9 fgapg is alarming.A player of her caliber should be taking 15 shots minimum per game.Moving back to PF will also put Edd in better position to use her shot-blocking ability around the basket area.
Move T.Hill to the bench,or get her to tone down her game.There's no way in hell hill should have the 10th highest usage rate in the league.24.8 usage with a "per" of only 16.9.That's mediocre...IF washington can trade Hill plus another asset for a better option at sf/sg,that would be even better.
I'm also starting to wonder about Toliver.Can the mystics really count on Kristi to be the 2nd/3rd option.Toliver's fg% has steadily gone down over the last 5 years...49% down to 40%.
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Aladyyn
Joined: 23 Jul 2017 Posts: 1560 Location: Czech Republic
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Posted: 09/18/17 7:15 am ::: |
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1) EDD doesn't want to be taking a billion shots a game like Tina Charles. Her efficiency has gone WAY up in DC and having balanced scoring is how you win in this league.
2) Hill's usage rate was the lowest it's been in 3 years. Non-issue with reasonable rotations (such as Hill playing all the minutes when Delle Donne is on the bench).
3) On a healthy Mystics team, Toliver is the 4th scoring option, with pop-off potential. Her FG% drop is very easily explained:
2013: 3.8 3PA/G, 7.9 2PA/G
2015: 4.0 3PA/G, 5.5 2PA/G
2017: 6.6 3PA/G, 3.4 2PA/G
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Randy
Joined: 08 Oct 2011 Posts: 10911
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Posted: 09/18/17 8:00 am ::: |
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Delle Donne missed 9 games, Emma missed 11. Hill missed 16 so just having everyone together and healthy along with a second year to build chemistry would probably improve this team a lot - 22 to 24 game winner seems possible. Of course, all those things need to happen and they probably won't.
I think the weak links are the Elena/Emma problem, and Hill at SG. Hill shots too much relative to how often they go in. I'd say the Mystics might want to shop their FRP to upgrade their SG or SF.
It seems possible that SWK or Hightower might solve the problem by pushing Hill to the bench.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 09/18/17 8:16 am ::: |
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Delle Donne is going to miss games. She's missed an average of eight games per season in her career and has played over 30 in a season only once.
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I ain't got a home
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Aladyyn
Joined: 23 Jul 2017 Posts: 1560 Location: Czech Republic
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Posted: 09/18/17 8:20 am ::: |
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Hightower might have been a better starting option than Hill in 2012 but that's only because Tayler was still in college. In 2017 it's not even close.
SWK is years away from being as good as Hill, if she ever even gets there. Seems that the little slump Hill was in right before she got injured is really influencing people's perception of her as a player.
I'm thinking that Tayler should play more in the "point guard" spot with bench lineups, like Latta did this year.
Hill
SWK
Cloud
Meesseman
Hawkins/draft pick
That's a NASTY secondary unit.
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zune69
Joined: 27 May 2010 Posts: 8185
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Posted: 09/18/17 8:41 am ::: |
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Aladyyn wrote: |
1) EDD doesn't want to be taking a billion shots a game like Tina Charles. Her efficiency has gone WAY up in DC and having balanced scoring is how you win in this league. |
Lets see how many playoff series Washington wins with EDD taking 11-13 shots per game during the playoffs.
Aladyyn wrote: |
2) Hill's usage rate was the lowest it's been in 3 years. Non-issue with reasonable rotations (such as Hill playing all the minutes when Delle Donne is on the bench). |
The lowest it's been in 3 years,and still too high.Hill uses too many possessions to get her pts/asst...13.3p/2.1a with a 24.8 usage rate isn't very productive,especially when you're playing with EDD.Hayes would be a much better option
Hayes:
16.3p/2.6a/23.3u
Better production than Hill with a lower usage rate.
Aladyyn wrote: |
3) On a healthy Mystics team, Toliver is the 4th scoring option |
No,Toliver should be the 3rd option at worst on this mystics team.11.9p/3.4a with only a 19.6 usage rate.Same production as Hill while having a 20% lower usage rate.
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Aladyyn
Joined: 23 Jul 2017 Posts: 1560 Location: Czech Republic
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Posted: 09/18/17 8:53 am ::: |
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Delle Donne took 16 shots a game during the 2017 playoffs. Non-issue.
No room on this team for Hayes' antics, even if she's the better player.
Toliver's usage is lower because she often takes herself out of the game. Hill never does.
Maybe the player who needs to shoot less is Ivory Latta with her 23.8% usage and 49.2% TS.
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zune69
Joined: 27 May 2010 Posts: 8185
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Posted: 09/18/17 9:25 am ::: |
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1.Delle donne avg only 13 fg attempts in 3 games versus Minnesota.
2.Coach T is a respected HC.Hayes would fall in line with the rest of the team.
3.Toliver's still more productive with a markedly lower usage rate.My point isn't that Toliver should be more ball dominate,but that Hill needs to tone it down.
4.Coach T benched Latta,problem solve...or was it ? Not sure if that was the right or wrong decision.
5.If Washington stands pat(same starting lineup),an increase in wins or better team isn't guaranteed.....Dallas,Chicago,atlanta,Phoenix,and Connecticut will all have upgrades in talent in 2018.
6.Instead of Washington wasting a draft pick on a center.What they could do is trade Hill or TRP for Alexander.Then draft Nared or Brown with the #7 pick.....another option would be to sign Swords....or maybe trade for Boyette.
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Aladyyn
Joined: 23 Jul 2017 Posts: 1560 Location: Czech Republic
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Posted: 09/18/17 9:32 am ::: |
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Did you seriously just suggest trading Tayler Hill for Kayla Alexander??
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zune69
Joined: 27 May 2010 Posts: 8185
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Posted: 09/18/17 9:39 am ::: |
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Aladyyn wrote: |
Did you seriously just suggest trading Tayler Hill for Kayla Alexander?? |
Did you seriously suggest starting Meesseman at center ?......And I said Hill or TRP...doesn't even have to be straight up....
How bout Hill or TRP,Hawkins,and the 2019 1st rd pk for Plum & Alexandor,or for Jefferson & Alexander.
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Aladyyn
Joined: 23 Jul 2017 Posts: 1560 Location: Czech Republic
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Posted: 09/18/17 9:48 am ::: |
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For a video game trade, that looks somewhat reasonable.
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22477 Location: NJ
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Posted: 09/18/17 9:52 am ::: |
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Meesseman at center was a horrible experiment that failed in the beginning of the season. Hill off the bench would be a great asset. They need a legit back-up center and slide Hawkins over to back-up PF.
PG: Toliver/Cloud
SG: Ruffin-Pratt/Hill/Latta
SF: Delle Donne/SWK
PF: Meesseman/Hawkins
C: Thomas/draft pick
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11166
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Posted: 09/18/17 9:53 am ::: |
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I like Emma Meesseman, but if you're talking about trades, she's the one to move -- assuming of course you could get equal value in return, which is most likely not going to happen.
But getting a quality wing who's a significant upgrade on Tayler Hill for Meesseman would balance out the roster. Now who that would be I'm not sure, as if Hill learns to take good shots and get the ball to EDD, she could be the answer right there.
Or, Emma could go for a legit post to team with Thomas, but again who that would be I'm not sure. Not many teams have one good five, much less one to spare.
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Aladyyn
Joined: 23 Jul 2017 Posts: 1560 Location: Czech Republic
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Posted: 09/18/17 10:00 am ::: |
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toad455 wrote: |
Meesseman at center was a horrible experiment that failed in the beginning of the season. Hill off the bench would be a great asset. They need a legit back-up center and slide Hawkins over to back-up PF.
PG: Toliver/Cloud
SG: Ruffin-Pratt/Hill/Latta
SF: Delle Donne/SWK
PF: Meesseman/Hawkins
C: Thomas/draft pick |
4 games after missing the whole training camp is not enough to draw that conclusion. I don't expect Emma to be able to play 30 minutes as a WNBA 5. But 10-15 depending on the situation is reasonable imo.
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zune69
Joined: 27 May 2010 Posts: 8185
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Posted: 09/18/17 10:10 am ::: |
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Who needs a young PF ?....atlanta
Messeman for Hayes ?
Although,moving Meesseman to the benxh would be my first option......then draft Nared,Brown or a center
Last edited by zune69 on 09/18/17 10:17 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Aladyyn
Joined: 23 Jul 2017 Posts: 1560 Location: Czech Republic
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Posted: 09/18/17 10:10 am ::: |
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ClayK wrote: |
I like Emma Meesseman, but if you're talking about trades, she's the one to move -- assuming of course you could get equal value in return, which is most likely not going to happen.
But getting a quality wing who's a significant upgrade on Tayler Hill for Meesseman would balance out the roster. Now who that would be I'm not sure, as if Hill learns to take good shots and get the ball to EDD, she could be the answer right there.
Or, Emma could go for a legit post to team with Thomas, but again who that would be I'm not sure. Not many teams have one good five, much less one to spare. |
Let's see. We can scratch the franchise players off the list so no Maya, no Angel, no DT. I assume Loyd is not available and Seattle is not interesting in trying to figure out how to fit Emma next to Stewie. Quigley is on the wrong side of 30. The one reasonable target in this scenario would be, as zune69 has mentioned, Tiffany Hayes. I wouldn't make that 1for1 personally. I don't think going from Hill to Hayes is close to being significant enough to give up on Emma.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63831
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Posted: 09/18/17 10:19 am ::: |
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Toliver(max)/Cloud(rook)
Hill(max)/Latta(high)/SWK(rook)
Delle Donne(max)/Ruffin-Pratt(high)
Meesseman(max)/Hawkins(high)/#7 pick(rook)
Thomas(high)/Sanders(high)
This roster isn't all that cheap. Some that are high could be max. I didn't refer to the "salary data base" but used my own intuition.
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#Occasionalwnbafan
Joined: 01 Mar 2012 Posts: 1380
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Posted: 09/18/17 10:43 am ::: |
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Delle Donne also had a total of 5 assist this series, your not going to beat a team like Minnesota if your best player doesn't look to pass the ball. I don't think Delle Donne should be used at the 3, she's more of a Power Forward. |
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 09/18/17 11:22 am ::: |
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Aladyyn wrote: |
The one reasonable target in this scenario would be, as zune69 has mentioned, Tiffany Hayes. I wouldn't make that 1for1 personally. I don't think going from Hill to Hayes is close to being significant enough to give up on Emma. |
Would you rather have Sykes?
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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