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root_thing



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PostPosted: 08/05/17 10:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I never root against my team during the game. I'm just not built that way. However, I'm able to step back and look at the bigger picture. If the franchise doesn't seem to be going anywhere, I'm mentally able to say a loss is for the best and this allows me to get over the game pretty quickly. I don't see this Liberty team accomplishing much if they keep playing the same way while using the same people. Unless there's a significant change of some kind - personnel, style of play, execution level - then I'm in semi-tank mode. To me, it does matter where the team finishes even if they make the playoffs. I believe the trend of players leaving early is a real thing and will continue. Since NY has multiple needs, it's not some hopeless case if we don't get into the top two or three picks. There will be good players in the middle of the draft. A slot or two can make a big difference between getting someone we can use versus someone who will be stuck on the bench.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 08/05/17 10:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The tank is going to be crowded in NY jumps in too. Dream are on a 5 game losing streak, Storm 3 and it's hard to count on the Sky or Wings to anything right for any length of time. It might pay though to look at the Storm to see how tanking might turn out, even with lucky ping pong balls.


J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 2:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah as bummed as we have been about the Lib the last few days they simply aren't bad enough to get into the lottery. If we assume SA and Indy got the lottery on lock then there are only two spots left for Chicago, Seattle, Atl, Dallas and us. We have the tie breaker with Seattle, Dallas and maybe Chi or Atl. Lets say we do a pitiful 3-7 in the last ten games that brings us to 15 wins that means that Seattle or Dallas would have to get to 16 wins, and Atl or Chicago would have to get to at least 15 wins, maybe 16 depending on the 3 games we win. That would mean these below .500 teams would have to win a majority of their remaining games to get past us. If we move up even to 4-6 in the last 10 it puts it almost out of reach, 5-5 gets to a point where Seattle or Chicago would have to win close to all of their games to get past us. I just don't see the lottery in the cards.

Also as HappyCappie pointed out if we do get in the lottery we are almost assure the #4 pick, still good but will #4 be that much better than #5-8.

without early entries
Wilson is likely #1
Deshields, K. Mitchell and G. Williams are possibly #2-4. OK I like all of them but all of them have some questions marks, OK well the list hurts my argument becuase I think Deshields or Williams would be a great answer for us at SF and K. Mitchell is a volume scorer but I wouldn't be surprised if after a short adjustment period she was a better scorer than either Rodgers or Prince, and she is probably closer to being a PG than anyone we have playing it this season (Besides back PG L. Allen), and if Stevens or another early entry candidate comes along we might even get to chose between two of those player.

But my Original point was supposed to be that the next tier of players could still have some great pieces for us, I think J. Canada could be a great option for us at PG similar to Boyd but probably better at everything she does (No offense to Boyd). Nared could have a break out season this year and be a great answer for us at SF, Nared is not as good as Gabby but she is 2 inches taller, plays most of her minutes on the wing and has a 3 point shot, a healthy Turner is probably better than Zahui B and Vaughn, Russell is a big question mark but she'll be another year away from injury, and is decent 6'7" scorer, splitting time with Stokes could work, even with questions about her toughness she would be the best scoring post to play with Charles since she has been in NY. I think Billings is an exciting athlete, after another season at UCLA she may devlop into the type of post that could be a nice all around compliment to Charles as a defender and a scorer. All these player (except Turner) were at the U23 games and I'm sure our scouts were figuring out who would be a great fit, and while a little less exciting with lower ceilings than the lottery options, I think these players have less question marks than the lottery picks not named Wilson, and will all be decent if not great..


NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 10:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Forget about the lottery and focus on winning at this point. 6 of our last 10 are at home. 6 of our last 10 are also against teams with worse records than us. Even as up and down as we've been, chances are we win 6 of the last 10. 7 of 10 is reasonable too. So at 18-16 or 19-15 the lottery isn't happening.

The thing that I'm most disappointed about is not the 12-12. It's that the trade value of every one of our young players has taken a hit this year. If we were working with some trade value, I think where we finish would matter less because we'd have a ton of maneuverability. Even Sugar's trade value has taken a hit. I'm hoping the last ten games can enhance the trade value of some of our players. Playoffs too.



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Happycappie25



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 10:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

You left out Stevens who could be a monkey wrench depending on what she does at UConn as a Senior...a post that we don't need but could push down someone into that 1A tier.

Tanking out of the playoffs is even more unrealistic now...in order of teams we need to PASS because I hope this shows how ludicrious this is

Remember we have 2 games in hand in Dallas (12-14)...and have the tie breaker only thing we have going in that scenario is that we could tank the final game on the road at dallas but they have only 8 to play to make up 3 maybe you change this to 2 since you do have the last game head to head but remember tie does no good...we have the head to head tie breaker.

Seattle and Atlanta both lost...now 3 back in the Loss column...while again if your thinking like this you can say we have the rubber match against Atlanta at McCamish so that would change things a bit...but that goes 6-7 does that make much difference...likely Canada either way in that case.

Seattle you have to make up essentially 4 games...and they have a tough schedule and are known to give up early. And no head to head. Seattle has 9 to play. One of those vs Minnesota.

Remember you have to pass all 3 to enter the lottery.

Chicago? 4 in the loss column and while you have one head to head...they only have 8 to play.

Now HERE is an Idea...and I do mean this seriously and I think gets you the best of both worlds.

Play for 6th or 7th if 8th happens it happens...You have already LA and Minnesota likely losses...So its At Atlanta and At Dallas (in a game that likely wont mean much) So if you are worried about draft position...the draft is deep enough you'll likely get a player who would be lottery around 5-7...fall into 8th you may very WELL get Gabby Williams if that's who you want again depending on what Stevens does.

So play hard until your near magic number 2 or 1 for 8th...given that we have 2 games in hand on Dallas and Chicago...1 on Atlanta and Seattle...that is likely 4 maybe 5 games....THEN...You start messing with the minutes and once we get the X...then yes you go into player development mode and Rest Tina for the playoffs...

REMEMBER: PLAYOFF Finish is irrevelant to the draft. If we make the semis from 8th we still pick 5th

But to tank out of the playoffs...we'd honestly have to go 0-10 or 1-9...and I just don't see that value in doing that in a draft deep enough that even the 8th or 9th pick may very well have more value than current lottery picks from last year...the draft is this good this year. We're pretty much locked into 5-7...

Also 6 home games...in renewal season...don't wanna spoil but there will be a reason the FO would want to see Ws posted at home this year as opposed to last renewal season. Remember not all STH are as committed as Rebkelleans they want wins at home...this IS a business...PERIOD.



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Happycappie25



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 10:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote:
Forget about the lottery and focus on winning at this point. 6 of our last 10 are at home. 6 of our last 10 are also against teams with worse records than us. Even as up and down as we've been, chances are we win 6 of the last 10. 7 of 10 is reasonable too. So at 18-16 or 19-15 the lottery isn't happening.

The thing that I'm most disappointed about is not the 12-12. It's that the trade value of every one of our young players has taken a hit this year. If we were working with some trade value, I think where we finish would matter less because we'd have a ton of maneuverability. Even Sugar's trade value has taken a hit. I'm hoping the last ten games can enhance the trade value of some of our players. Playoffs too.


Thank you...I just posted in great detail why Tanking is NOT AN OPTION...and had to at least take position on just trying to tread water and throwing the chutes once we are close to clinching the playoffs...but I agree get the extra home game...plenty of good players to go around who we can use in the first round



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toad455



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 11:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

No need to tank in a strong draft. Even if we end up as high as the #4 seed, that would be pick #9. We clearly have the talent to take out any teams in the first & second rounds. Reaching the semis should be the Liberty's goal right now. Let's just hope Tina isn't too fatigued by the play-offs & both Sugar & Prince get out of their shooting slump.



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NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 12:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Happycappie25 wrote:
NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote:
Forget about the lottery and focus on winning at this point. 6 of our last 10 are at home. 6 of our last 10 are also against teams with worse records than us. Even as up and down as we've been, chances are we win 6 of the last 10. 7 of 10 is reasonable too. So at 18-16 or 19-15 the lottery isn't happening.

The thing that I'm most disappointed about is not the 12-12. It's that the trade value of every one of our young players has taken a hit this year. If we were working with some trade value, I think where we finish would matter less because we'd have a ton of maneuverability. Even Sugar's trade value has taken a hit. I'm hoping the last ten games can enhance the trade value of some of our players. Playoffs too.


Thank you...I just posted in great detail why Tanking is NOT AN OPTION...and had to at least take position on just trying to tread water and throwing the chutes once we are close to clinching the playoffs...but I agree get the extra home game...plenty of good players to go around who we can use in the first round


I agree. And I PM'ed you about bus to Mohegan FYI.



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NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 12:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
No need to tank in a strong draft. Even if we end up as high as the #4 seed, that would be pick #9. We clearly have the talent to take out any teams in the first & second rounds. Reaching the semis should be the Liberty's goal right now. Let's just hope Tina isn't too fatigued by the play-offs & both Sugar & Prince get out of their shooting slump.


And I'd say the 4 seed is far from impossible and I have the "anything can happen" mindset. Tiebreaker over Phoenix without Griner for now. Tiebreaker game against D.C. at home possibly without EDD. We've seen a 1-10 team make the finals in this league before. And while I agree with the thought that a late season run would mask our weaknesses, it would also say something if we could make a top 4 seed in these circumstances.



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root_thing



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 12:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Obviously, the team is going to try to win games. As I said before, I always root for the Liberty to win. However, I do think that we need to stay in the middle of the draft to safely get a good player who is also a good fit. This constant refrain of "it's a deep draft" is overplayed. You'd think that next year's draft is Griner, Delle Donne, Diggins times four. Folks, it's not "The Twelve To See." You're going to get a better player than normal at the bottom, but it doesn't mean every 1st Rounder is going to make an immediate impact or even be in your rotation. So, teams will likely need to stay in at least the middle of the draft to have choices. I can live with where we are right now at #7. #5 or #6 would be better, but I'm OK with #7. I don't want to draft at #9. It may turn out OK, but it's much more risky.

As far as raising the value of our current players go, if we could make them play better then NY would be a better team. That in itself would be reward enough. But improvement is not going to happen by itself. The coaching staff needs to be more creative. If they can pull it off, then this whole discussion about retooling becomes largely irrelevant.



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 12:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yes, anything can happen. But for me current talk of New York winning the #4 seed is just like earlier talk of winning the #2 seed. Just a lovely fantasy.



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 1:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
Obviously, the team is going to try to win games. As I said before, I always root for the Liberty to win. However, I do think that we need to stay in the middle of the draft to safely get a good player who is also a good fit. This constant refrain of "it's a deep draft" is overplayed. You'd think that next year's draft is Griner, Delle Donne, Diggins times four. Folks, it's not "The Twelve To See." You're going to get a better player than normal at the bottom, but it doesn't mean every 1st Rounder is going to make an immediate impact or even be in your rotation. So, teams will likely need to stay in at least the middle of the draft to have choices. I can live with where we are right now at #7. #5 or #6 would be better, but I'm OK with #7. I don't want to draft at #9. It may turn out OK, but it's much more risky.

Given how capable of beating each other all those 5-10 teams are, I can't help feeling you might be better off finishing 7th/8th than battling up to something like 5th. A meaningfully better pick, and take your chances of winning on the road in the first round against a similarly mediocre team.

I'm sure teams will say they want home-court in the first round (or ideally to get up to 4th to skip it entirely), but they might actually be better off lower down.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 2:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
This constant refrain of "it's a deep draft" is overplayed. You'd think that next year's draft is Griner, Delle Donne, Diggins times four. Folks, it's not "The Twelve To See."


Right - it is not even the one to see. Wilson is <<Griner/EDD. Mitchell and DD are probably < Diggins.


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PostPosted: 08/06/17 2:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

But I feel anyone taken in the first round of the 2018 draft has tons of potential and may not have the star power of Griner, Delle Donne or Diggins, but certainly enough to be a starter on some teams or at least a 6th woman type.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 2:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
But I feel anyone taken in the first round of the 2018 draft has tons of potential and may not have the star power of Griner, Delle Donne or Diggins, but certainly enough to be a starter on some teams or at least a 6th woman type.


I think you are right about that.


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PostPosted: 08/06/17 2:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'm not a WCBB expert. Far from. But I've seen Kia Nurse and Lexie Brown a number of times. Each is projected in the late first round range. To me, they're both immediate WNBA rotation players who would be a big help to the Libs, especially given they basically have two needs. Guard who can score/pass/handle and defend the rim. To me, either of those players fills the guard need and the rim defense can either improve from within or through trade. Even with a hit in trade value, there's teams Sugar would be valuable to, for instance.



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mercfan3



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 3:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote:
I'm not a WCBB expert. Far from. But I've seen Kia Nurse and Lexie Brown a number of times. Each is projected in the late first round range. To me, they're both immediate WNBA rotation players who would be a big help to the Libs, especially given they basically have two needs. Guard who can score/pass/handle and defend the rim. To me, either of those players fills the guard need and the rim defense can either improve from within or through trade. Even with a hit in trade value, there's teams Sugar would be valuable to, for instance.


If you're looking for someone who can play PG at the pro level, Nurse is not your girl.

She's going to be an excellent defender though. I think she's capable of being a Beard type player.



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NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 4:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I know Nurse isn't a PG. But I'll settle if she's what's available. She has a good floor game and that's needed by the Libs on the wing as well. Not to mention it's hard to get by without a 6'0" wing player or one who plays similarly big. Nurse would dearly help the Libs matchup-wise if she's available.



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 4:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I also would like to stay in the 5 to 7 range for the players I like.This is a deep draft. It is not as strong at the top but I think late 1st round and some second round will be rotation players.


Wilson, Deshields, Mitchell, Williams, Turner, Canada, Billings, Brown, Nared, Nurse, Vadeeva, that is 12 right there, Vivians, Thomas, Scaife, Greenwell, Mavunga, Harper, Atkins, Macarty, That is 20 and i am sure there is another decent 4 or 5 I am forgetting and that doesn't include any early entries add say Stevens and Mcgowan and the draft is deep with legit roster making player.


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PostPosted: 08/06/17 4:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Just got through watching Phoenix lose to D.C. Could really have used a D.C. loss. Between the unforced Phoenix turnovers, Toliver's circus shots and Phoenix yielding offensive rebounds it was about as infuriating a game I've seen where I wasn't a fan of either team.

Plus side. A win Tuesday puts the Libs at #5. Two games out of 4th.



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Shades



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 4:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mercfan3 wrote:

If you're looking for someone who can play PG at the pro level, Nurse is not your girl.


Could be starting at PG for UConn. It'll be interesting to see how they work out all the talent on their roster.



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 4:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'm not sold on Nurse as a WNBA-type PG. We'll see how well she transitions to the next level.



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NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 4:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Me neither. True PGs can take years to master the WNBA. Draft her to be a point forward and leave her in that role to develop those skills.

And a 6'0" PG is unlikely to push tempo unless they have the type of game similar to Nikki Teasley. Tempo is needed in the WNBA. Nurse might help with that on the wing. She won't as a team's primary ball handler.



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NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 5:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Skylar Diggins has more blocked shots per 36 minutes than Kia Vaughn. Just leaving that here.



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 6:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
I also would like to stay in the 5 to 7 range for the players I like.This is a deep draft. It is not as strong at the top but I think late 1st round and some second round will be rotation players.


Wilson, Deshields, Mitchell, Williams, Turner, Canada, Billings, Brown, Nared, Nurse, Vadeeva, that is 12 right there, Vivians, Thomas, Scaife, Greenwell, Mavunga, Harper, Atkins, Macarty, That is 20 and i am sure there is another decent 4 or 5 I am forgetting and that doesn't include any early entries add say Stevens and Mcgowan and the draft is deep with legit roster making player.


yeah its deep with solid Prospects players, i think Wilson and Mitchell are my 2 locks to be immediate impact. Gabby, Deshields and Canada can be impact if they are on the right team/fit

Gabby, Mitchell, Nared, Canada, Billings, and L. Brown, i'd be happy with in the 1st round

i watched some of the U23 trails of the Gold Medal game, Mitchell, Canada, Nared, Billings, Harper and Atkins caught my eye

and also keep an eye on Raigyne Moncrief from LSU this season coming up, great mid range game, great speed and great defense. she would be a nice sleeper pick in the 2nd or 3rd round


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