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What WAS the most overrated team of 2016-17?

 
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What team was the most overrated in 2016-17?
Notre Dame
6%
 6%  [ 4 ]
Baylor
10%
 10%  [ 7 ]
UConn
12%
 12%  [ 8 ]
S. Carolina
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Louisville
9%
 9%  [ 6 ]
Maryland
18%
 18%  [ 12 ]
Ohio State
21%
 21%  [ 14 ]
Texas
3%
 3%  [ 2 ]
UCLA
1%
 1%  [ 1 ]
Miss. State
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Stanford
1%
 1%  [ 1 ]
Florida St.
1%
 1%  [ 1 ]
Tennessee
7%
 7%  [ 5 ]
Miami
1%
 1%  [ 1 ]
Syracuse
4%
 4%  [ 3 ]
Total Votes : 65

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GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: 04/26/17 5:34 pm    ::: What WAS the most overrated team of 2016-17? Reply Reply with quote

I'm constantly amazed and amused as to how many teams are claimed to be "overrated" on WCBB boards every season in virtually every thread on rankings, polls, RPI and seedings.

(I think I once posted a thread called something like: Is Every Team Overrated?)

So . . . now that the 2016-17 season is finished, which team WAS IN FACT the most overrated during the season, whatever that means in your opinion?

In case you're wondering, the order of the choices is the first 15 teams from the AP pre-season poll. But the question doesn't just relate to that poll's order -- unless you want it to -- but to "overrated" over the whole season.
zvyn3



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PostPosted: 04/27/17 12:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Maryland.


ucbart



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 04/28/17 8:15 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

zvyn3 wrote:
Maryland.


Agree. But I'm slightly confused as to how UCONN got so many votes. We graduated the #1, #2 and #3 picks in the WNBA draft and were coming off four straight National Championships. We had all of our players in new roles, lost one game by 2 in OT and beat pretty much the rest of the elites. Yes we had 3 AA's, but they had to develop into those roles, they didn't walk into them.


pilight



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PostPosted: 04/28/17 8:17 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ucbart wrote:
zvyn3 wrote:
Maryland.


Agree. But I'm slightly confused as to how UCONN got so many votes. We graduated the #1, #2 and #3 picks in the WNBA draft and were coming off four straight National Championships. We had all of our players in new roles, lost one game by 2 in OT and beat pretty much the rest of the elites. Yes we had 3 AA's, but they had to develop into those roles, they didn't walk into them.


Haters gonna hate



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PostPosted: 04/28/17 9:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

111 straight...that is all



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Howee



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PostPosted: 04/28/17 10:20 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

For me, it's Baylor. I had them taking it all, in at least 2 of my brackets. But even by objective standards, I think there were legit expectations that they should be at the FF, and enough hype to that effect to consider them 'overrated'.



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summertime blues



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PostPosted: 04/28/17 10:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

You should have had a box for "other", in which case I think I would have checked that. My vote would have been for Cal...always highly touted at the beginning of the season but doesn't come through.

However, of the ones on the list, I still had to debate with myself long and hard before finally ticking the box for Maryland. It was between them and Ohio State. Neither one lived up to expectations...in a BIG way! I finally voted for Maryland because I felt like they had more star power to work with but until the season started they played basically East Jesus Tech and its cousins, they play in a pretty weak conference, and they flamed out when it came to crunch time. Ohio State was more of a one-player team but at least they had a slightly better OOC. Baylor came in a distant third. I considered them but they play in a slightly stronger conference than Maryland and OSU. Still, they play a disgustingly weak OOC and they folded badly, both in their conference tourney and in the NCAA. That should show both Brenda and Kim what a crappy OOC will do for you.

Even though I am a Tennessee fan, I kinda had to give them a pass for this year in spite of their early exit. Undermanned and missing some key components, they still managed to play a pretty tough schedule and pull off some key upsets. My assessment of the early exit was that they had just run out their string. *shrug* It happens. If they do the same thing next year, I won't be so easy on them.



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myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 04/28/17 2:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I went with OhSU and see others seem to agree with me. And I truly don't understand the votes for UConn. They lost ONE game all year! They certainly exceeded my expectations and as far as being ranked #1 most of the year, they deserved to be there. They beat every 'good' team they met all along the way...until that one loss. And I would bet on them in a three game series against any team in the country.

Baylor and Tenn would probably have been my next two. Like Howee I had Baylor winning it all in a couple of brackets and think they severely underperformed. Tenn was just all over the map and with that much talent the simply SHOULD NOT have lost a bunch of the games they lost.



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Last edited by myrtle on 04/28/17 2:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 04/28/17 2:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:

Even though I am a Tennessee fan, I kinda had to give them a pass for this year in spite of their early exit. Undermanned and missing some key components, they still managed to play a pretty tough schedule and pull off some key upsets. My assessment of the early exit was that they had just run out their string. *shrug* It happens. If they do the same thing next year, I won't be so easy on them.


This !!!!!!



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linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 04/29/17 11:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RK TEAM RECORD PTS
1 Notre Dame (14)793 - 787 -6
2 Baylor (12) 789 - 719 -70
3 Connecticut (6) 743 - 825 +82
4 S Carolina (1) 719 - 729 +10
5 Louisville 718 - 439 -279
6 Maryland 635 - 725 +90
7 Ohio State 632 - 485 -147
8 U of Texas 604 - 408 -196
9 U of Cal LA 557 - 365 -192
10 Miss State 516 - 619 +103
11 Stanford 471 - 649 +178
12 Florida State 437 - 498 +61
13 Tennessee 415 - 3 -412
14 U of Miami 328 - 353 +25
14 Syracuse 328 - 149 -179
16 Oklahoma 285 - 126 -159
17 Washington 259 - 473 +214
18 Arizona State 244 - 1 -243
19 Kentucky 228 - 230 +2
20 U Florida 181 - 0 -181
21 DePaul U 160 - 193 +33
22 West Virginia 154 - 131 -23
23 U of Indiana 108 - 0 -108
24 Missouri 98 - 47 -51
25 Oregon State 95 - 593 +498


Here is how the AP felt about how teams did against their preseason expectations. After the team name & 1st place votes is the preseason & postseason vote total and the bolded net change. Admittedly not the most astute source but one of the few that actually published their pre-season expectations. Of course the AP's final rankings are made prior to the tournament but IMO the tournament throws a too-huge shadow over the season records. If I find time later I will post the coaches side which does include the NCAA's, but I suspect it wouldn't change things for most of these teams.

Biggest disappointments? Tennessee (by a wide margin), Louisville, Arizona St

Biggest overachievers? Oregon St (by a wide margin), Washington, Stanford


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 04/29/17 1:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This topic allows each of us to decide our own criterion of "overrated", but I suppose we all have in mind some sort of data points in doing that.

A couple of observations on the comments so far:

The AP data reported by Linkster in the post above is very interesting. It compares votes in their last (pre-tournament) poll against their pre-season poll, which may not be the metric that seems most relevant to some fans. It might be more informative for the AP to compare their last poll votes to the mean or median (?) votes that each team received over the season. And it would be interesting to see similar data from the coaches poll, which does a post-tournament ranking.

As to why some voters here pick UConn as the most overrated, I can think of a reason. They are comparing the overwhelming predictions and assumptions of a UConn win immediately prior to the tournament to the actual tournament outcome: a loss to a team whom they had beaten by 60 points a year earlier and who ultimately lost in the tournament themselves.

UConn entered the tournament with all the #1 rankings, unanimous poll votes, unanimous top RPI ratings, the top SelCom seeding, extremely high Nate Silver 538 tournament win probabilities, and gigantic media hype augmented by the win streak. So if one's temporal frame of reference for "overratedness" is limited to pre-tournament expectations vs. actual outcome, then one might vote for UConn in this poll.
WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 04/29/17 1:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:

UConn entered the tournament with all the #1 rankings, unanimous poll votes, unanimous top RPI ratings, the top SelCom seeding, extremely high Nate Silver 538 tournament win probabilities, and gigantic media hype augmented by the win streak. So if one's temporal frame of reference for "overratedness" is limited to pre-tournament expectations vs. actual outcome, then one might vote for UConn in this poll.



This one actually did . +1



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summertime blues



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PostPosted: 04/29/17 3:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Who gives a flying Wallenda what the AP thinks? I barely glance at the polls any more. And this is a question about what WE think, not them.



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linkster



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PostPosted: 04/29/17 4:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
Who gives a flying Wallenda what the AP thinks? I barely glance at the polls any more. And this is a question about what WE think, not them.


Given the attention those polls get before and each Monday/Tuesday during the season I would say that even if it is just to mock them, many posters/lurkers find the polls an interesting topic. The opinions of the media permeate these discussion boards.

The reason I posted them was that I don't think many of us posted our preseason expectations for more than a few teams. Remembering after the fact how one expected most teams to perform in November can be problematic, while the AP polls, as weak as they are, at least offer some hard, verifiable numbers. One can agree with them or not but at least it's an objective researchable assessment rather than the wacked-out opinions of several posters who saw UConn as the most under achieving team in the country, which stinks like hell of petty partisanship.

Tennessee has generally been over-rated in preseason polls compared to their final poll ranking for the last 10 years or so. I myself had more modest expectations of how Tenn would do in 16/17 after Cooper went down so my pre and post season predictions for them weren't nearly as incongruous as that of the AP.

I also think that what really sticks out is that the three most under-rated teams all reside in the PAC12. West coast bias?


patsweetpat



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PostPosted: 04/30/17 10:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
I also think that what really sticks out is that the three most under-rated teams all reside in the PAC12. West coast bias?


It would appear.


CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
Posts: 379
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PostPosted: 05/10/17 4:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
This topic allows each of us to decide our own criterion of "overrated", but I suppose we all have in mind some sort of data points in doing that.

A couple of observations on the comments so far:

The AP data reported by Linkster in the post above is very interesting. It compares votes in their last (pre-tournament) poll against their pre-season poll, which may not be the metric that seems most relevant to some fans. It might be more informative for the AP to compare their last poll votes to the mean or median (?) votes that each team received over the season. And it would be interesting to see similar data from the coaches poll, which does a post-tournament ranking.

As to why some voters here pick UConn as the most overrated, I can think of a reason. They are comparing the overwhelming predictions and assumptions of a UConn win immediately prior to the tournament to the actual tournament outcome: a loss to a team whom they had beaten by 60 points a year earlier and who ultimately lost in the tournament themselves.

UConn entered the tournament with all the #1 rankings, unanimous poll votes, unanimous top RPI ratings, the top SelCom seeding, extremely high Nate Silver 538 tournament win probabilities, and gigantic media hype augmented by the win streak. So if one's temporal frame of reference for "overratedness" is limited to pre-tournament expectations vs. actual outcome, then one might vote for UConn in this poll.


IMO, any team that makes a Final Four by definition cannot be "overrated" regardless of how high the expectations for that team is.

In much the same way, a team that loses in the Elite Eight by one point after having lost their key post player shouldn't be considered overrated either.


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