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cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 8182
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump is not president.


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PostPosted: 03/06/17 10:43 am    ::: Illegal immigration Reply Reply with quote

Is the following info in dispute?


http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/03/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/


http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/02/what-we-know-about-illegal-immigration-from-mexico/

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/02/raw-data-illegal-immigration-mexico



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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 4964



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PostPosted: 03/06/17 6:47 pm    ::: Re: Illegal immigration Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Is the following info in dispute?


http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/03/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/


http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/02/what-we-know-about-illegal-immigration-from-mexico/

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/02/raw-data-illegal-immigration-mexico


Graphs like this:


from Pew Research, the only organization I believe that publishes illegal immigration statistics, is surprisingly taken at face value. The advocates for illegal immigrants and illegal immigration will quote it on CNN and it goes unchallenged.

I don't see an accurate way to determine the number of illegal aliens in the US and how many of those are working. You can only make rough estimates. They don't check-in as they move illegally into the US or return back to Mexico and Central America. There potentially is reliable (and embarrassing) data on visa-overstay illegal migration (which is occasionally stated as 40% of total illegal immigration when someone is fighting the wall) , but I never see it published. And employers and illegal aliens don't notify anyone that they have just hired an illegal alien, or have just been hired to work illegally.

When I checked I found that Pew Research said they do two things to determine how many illegal aliens are in the US - they look at government statistics for how many are caught trying to get in, and they look at census data for Mexico and the US. According to this Pew article the Mexican census and a household survey (unlike the US census) has a question regarding illegal migration to or from the US. So Mexican illegal migration statistics - for a period, not a year - would be dependent on that census/survey being accurately filled out as to illegal migration. But it would miss illegal immigrants who's entire immediate family have come to the United States. And if someone is 26 years old and was living for 4 years outside their parents house, they would only be reflected in the census/survey if it has a broad question regarding not just household members, but grown children who have moved out.


But, besides the fact that illegal aliens are coming from countries other than Mexico via the southern border, the 40% visa overstay data is also a problem. When I checked, Pew Research did not claim to be using any data to determine visa overstays in their estimates of illegal aliens. And I wonder if the US Government even publishes it. I have never seen the headline you would expect - "Millions here illegally from visa overstays" - with statistics citing how many people each year come here on a visa and don't return.


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