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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 01/30/17 3:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
I expect the likely outcome to be UConn, Baylor, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion as the four #1 seeds.


None of the ACC schools deserve a #1 seed Unless FSU Runs the table with the reg season and Conf tourney . I expect UCONN , BU , SC OR MS State with a curve ball of FSU or The Pac 12 Champ



The likelihood of two SEC teams getting #1 seeds is remote.

SCar still has a loss to UConn coming, and has to beat Tenn and KY twice. Plus one of the two will lose in the SEC tournament.

Whichever of FSU or ND wins the ACC will likely end up as a #1.

'
If ND Wins out and wins the ACC tourney there still not a #1 seed to Me. The Pac 12 has the better conference and OSU winning out should leapfrog anyone in the ACC except FSU . Just my personal opinion though


The PAC got smoked in their major OOC games. That's reflected in the standings of their best teams in the polls and RPI.


Shades



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PostPosted: 01/30/17 3:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
I expect the likely outcome to be UConn, Baylor, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion as the four #1 seeds.


Despite the numbers, if a team goes undefeated through a major conference, wins their conference tournament, and has only one loss (a close one against the #1 team in the country), they will get a #1 seed.


This is like saying a #1 seed is Maryland's to lose. So you should program this notion into your algorithm.



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WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 01/30/17 4:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
I expect the likely outcome to be UConn, Baylor, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion as the four #1 seeds.


Despite the numbers, if a team goes undefeated through a major conference, wins their conference tournament, and has only one loss (a close one against the #1 team in the country), they will get a #1 seed.


This is like saying a #1 seed is Maryland's to lose. So you should program this notion into your algorithm.


And that Should not be the case , via Eye Test Notre Dame Is NOT one of the top 4 teams in the country.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 01/30/17 4:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
I expect the likely outcome to be UConn, Baylor, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion as the four #1 seeds.


Despite the numbers, if a team goes undefeated through a major conference, wins their conference tournament, and has only one loss (a close one against the #1 team in the country), they will get a #1 seed.


This is like saying a #1 seed is Maryland's to lose. So you should program this notion into your algorithm.


And that Should not be the case , via Eye Test Notre Dame Is NOT one of the top 4 teams in the country.


Notre Dame, with three losses including one in conference, does not fit my description at all.



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 01/30/17 4:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
I expect the likely outcome to be UConn, Baylor, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion as the four #1 seeds.


Despite the numbers, if a team goes undefeated through a major conference, wins their conference tournament, and has only one loss (a close one against the #1 team in the country), they will get a #1 seed.


This is like saying a #1 seed is Maryland's to lose. So you should program this notion into your algorithm.


And that Should not be the case , via Eye Test Notre Dame Is NOT one of the top 4 teams in the country.


I'm still trying to figure out the logic that FSU deserves a #1 seed but if ND beats FSU twice, ND doesn't.


WNBA 09



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Location: Dallas , Texas


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PostPosted: 01/30/17 4:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
I expect the likely outcome to be UConn, Baylor, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion as the four #1 seeds.


Despite the numbers, if a team goes undefeated through a major conference, wins their conference tournament, and has only one loss (a close one against the #1 team in the country), they will get a #1 seed.


This is like saying a #1 seed is Maryland's to lose. So you should program this notion into your algorithm.


And that Should not be the case , via Eye Test Notre Dame Is NOT one of the top 4 teams in the country.



I'm still trying to figure out the logic that FSU deserves a #1 seed but if ND beats FSU twice, ND doesn't.


Because Notre Dame Has lost to a team With Losses to VT & Penn St Laughing



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 01/30/17 4:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
I expect the likely outcome to be UConn, Baylor, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion as the four #1 seeds.


Despite the numbers, if a team goes undefeated through a major conference, wins their conference tournament, and has only one loss (a close one against the #1 team in the country), they will get a #1 seed.


This is like saying a #1 seed is Maryland's to lose. So you should program this notion into your algorithm.


And that Should not be the case , via Eye Test Notre Dame Is NOT one of the top 4 teams in the country.



I'm still trying to figure out the logic that FSU deserves a #1 seed but if ND beats FSU twice, ND doesn't.


Because Notre Dame Has lost to a team With Losses to VT & Penn St Laughing


Guess that rules out Stanford if they win the PAC. And SCar lost to a team that lost to Vandy and to Notre Dame. And what's going to happen if Tenn beats SCar tonight. And Ore St lost to a team that lost to Santa Clara and SJU and Creighton and Providence.

You're going to have a hell of a time finding four number 1 seeds.


WNBA 09



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Location: Dallas , Texas


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PostPosted: 01/30/17 4:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
I expect the likely outcome to be UConn, Baylor, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion as the four #1 seeds.


Despite the numbers, if a team goes undefeated through a major conference, wins their conference tournament, and has only one loss (a close one against the #1 team in the country), they will get a #1 seed.


This is like saying a #1 seed is Maryland's to lose. So you should program this notion into your algorithm.


And that Should not be the case , via Eye Test Notre Dame Is NOT one of the top 4 teams in the country.



I'm still trying to figure out the logic that FSU deserves a #1 seed but if ND beats FSU twice, ND doesn't.


Because Notre Dame Has lost to a team With Losses to VT & Penn St Laughing


Guess that rules out Stanford if they win the PAC. And SCar lost to a team that lost to Vandy and to Notre Dame. And what's going to happen if Tenn beats SCar tonight. And Ore St lost to a team that lost to Santa Clara and SJU and Creighton and Providence.

You're going to have a hell of a time finding four number 1 seeds.


Id Probably end up with 8 lol which would see about correct for this years tourney . Great for drama and headliners though hopefully the parity continues throughout the year. Honestly ND can get a #1 seed but due to there disappointment of expectations i personally set for them i dont feel they deserve it . I doubt the win the ACC anyway



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 01/30/17 9:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:


Because Notre Dame Has lost to a team With Losses to VT & Penn St Laughing


Guess that rules out Stanford if they win the PAC. And SCar lost to a team that lost to Vandy and to Notre Dame. And what's going to happen if Tenn beats SCar tonight. And Ore St lost to a team that lost to Santa Clara and SJU and Creighton and Providence.

You're going to have a hell of a time finding four number 1 seeds.


Id Probably end up with 8 lol which would see about correct for this years tourney . Great for drama and headliners though hopefully the parity continues throughout the year. Honestly ND can get a #1 seed but due to there disappointment of expectations i personally set for them i dont feel they deserve it . I doubt the win the ACC anyway


Well I guess SCar is disqualified in your bracket too. You're running out of options.


SpaceJunkie



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PostPosted: 01/30/17 10:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Morgan St is obviously one of the top candidates to be a #1 seed Smile Smile Smile


WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 01/30/17 10:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
Morgan St is obviously one of the top candidates to be a #1 seed Smile Smile Smile


Aha And Were Back To 8 !



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pilight



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PostPosted: 02/06/17 11:43 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote



Multiple Bid Conferences
8 SEC
7 ACC
7 P12
4 B12
4 AAC
4 BEast
3 B10
2 Horizon
2 Ivy

Just Missed: Wake Forest, Virginia, Northwestern, Iowa
Last In: Harvard, Tulane, St John's, Maquette

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds. In this instance eight teams swapped seeds to avoid this. Syracuse, South Florida, Texas A&M, and St John's moved up one; Tennessee, California, Michigan, and Auburn moved down one.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was -4 points. It took 14.5 points to get a #1 seed.



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WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 02/06/17 12:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:


Multiple Bid Conferences
8 SEC
7 ACC
7 P12
4 B12
4 AAC
4 BEast
3 B10
2 Horizon
2 Ivy

Just Missed: Wake Forest, Virginia, Northwestern, Iowa
Last In: Harvard, Tulane, St John's, Maquette

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds. In this instance eight teams swapped seeds to avoid this. Syracuse, South Florida, Texas A&M, and St John's moved up one; Tennessee, California, Michigan, and Auburn moved down one.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was -4 points. It took 14.5 points to get a #1 seed.


Baylor With the bracket of death while uconn cakewalks in the tourney continues



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SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 02/06/17 1:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:


Multiple Bid Conferences
8 SEC
7 ACC
7 P12
4 B12
4 AAC
4 BEast
3 B10
2 Horizon
2 Ivy

Just Missed: Wake Forest, Virginia, Northwestern, Iowa
Last In: Harvard, Tulane, St John's, Maquette

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds. In this instance eight teams swapped seeds to avoid this. Syracuse, South Florida, Texas A&M, and St John's moved up one; Tennessee, California, Michigan, and Auburn moved down one.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was -4 points. It took 14.5 points to get a #1 seed.


When you do your Field of 64, do you have to enter in all your input manually or can you import the RPI data automatically somehow?


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66773
Location: Where the action is


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PostPosted: 02/06/17 1:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
pilight wrote:


Multiple Bid Conferences
8 SEC
7 ACC
7 P12
4 B12
4 AAC
4 BEast
3 B10
2 Horizon
2 Ivy

Just Missed: Wake Forest, Virginia, Northwestern, Iowa
Last In: Harvard, Tulane, St John's, Maquette

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds. In this instance eight teams swapped seeds to avoid this. Syracuse, South Florida, Texas A&M, and St John's moved up one; Tennessee, California, Michigan, and Auburn moved down one.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was -4 points. It took 14.5 points to get a #1 seed.


When you do your Field of 64, do you have to enter in all your input manually or can you import the RPI data automatically somehow?


I take the official PDF from here and convert it into a spreadsheet. Then put in the formulas. The schedule stuff I have to put in manually.



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linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 02/06/17 3:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
I expect the likely outcome to be UConn, Baylor, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion as the four #1 seeds.


Despite the numbers, if a team goes undefeated through a major conference, wins their conference tournament, and has only one loss (a close one against the #1 team in the country), they will get a #1 seed.


This is like saying a #1 seed is Maryland's to lose. So you should program this notion into your algorithm.


And that Should not be the case , via Eye Test Notre Dame Is NOT one of the top 4 teams in the country.



I'm still trying to figure out the logic that FSU deserves a #1 seed but if ND beats FSU twice, ND doesn't.


Because Notre Dame Has lost to a team With Losses to VT & Penn St Laughing


And now S Carolina has lost to a team with losses to VT & Penn State. I guess they don't deserve a 1 seed either? Rolling Eyes

And Miss St has exactly one win against a team of any note, Texas. I just don't think they have the resume of a 1 seed.

And finally, it's revealing that MD is dismissed until they end up as the 4 seed in the region of some poster's favorite team, then they become a nightmare.
Have no fear, I'm fairly certain that due to geography MD will end up in UConn's region and those same posters can then go back to ridiculing their schedule. Rolling Eyes


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 02/06/17 3:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
And Miss St has exactly one win against a team of any note, Texas. I just don't think they have the resume of a 1 seed.


Other than UConn, who does?



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linkster



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PostPosted: 02/06/17 5:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
linkster wrote:
And Miss St has exactly one win against a team of any note, Texas. I just don't think they have the resume of a 1 seed.


Other than UConn, who does?



It's a mess this year. No matter what system is used there are tough teams that come up as 3-4 seeds. There are 5 PAC12 teams, none of whom are expected to be 1 seeds that will be tough outs in the S16 and E8. No matter how undeserving MD appears no one wants to face them in their team's regional. Those who think that two SEC teams deserve one seeds are looking at RPI but ignore Notre Dame's No 2 RPI. They said that ND lost to Tenn but now need another tack after S Carolina shit the bed. Tenn has the best record vs top 10 teams, having beat 3 of them and yet their losses belie any thought of giving them a high seed. Then there's tOSU. Who wants to play them?

There's a disagreement among the various ratings systems.

Massey
1 UConn
2 Baylor
3 MD
4 Miss St
5 S Car
6 Fla St
7 Wash
8 N Dame
9 Stanford
10 Or St
.
.
RPI
1 UConn
2 N Dame
3 S Car
4 Miss St
5 Baylor
6 Or St
7 Fla St
8 Wash
9 Texas
10 Stanford
.
.
Sagarin
1 UConn
2 Baylor
3 S Car
4 Fla St
5 Miss St
6 MD
7 Wash
8 N Dame
9 Stanford
10 Duke

Should be a lively discussion in a month.


ArtBest23



Joined: 02 Jul 2013
Posts: 14550



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PostPosted: 02/06/17 6:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
Tenn has the best record vs top 10 teams, having beat 3 of them and yet their losses belie any thought of giving them a high seed. Then there's tOSU. Who wants to play them?



Don't forget NCSt, with wins over the 5th, 7th, 12th and 14th ranked teams in the country. Nobody's going to want to face them, potentially in the 2nd or 3rd round.

And don't forget SCar also lost to Duke, which got beat by ND, NCSt and FSU.

And why is Wash ahead in two of those lists of a team to which it lost?


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66773
Location: Where the action is


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PostPosted: 02/06/17 6:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
There's a disagreement among the various ratings systems.


To be sure...

Real Time RPI

1 UConn
2 Baylor
3 Mississippi State
4 South Carolina
5 Maryland
6 Florida State
7 Notre Dame
8 Stanford
9 Louisville
10 Washington


Warren Nolan

1 UConn
2 Mississippi State
3 Baylor
4 South Carolina
5 Florida State
6 Maryland
7 Notre Dame
8 Washington
9 Stanford
10 Oregon State


Sonny Moore

1 UConn
2 Baylor
3 Florida State
4 South Carolina
5 Maryland
6 Washington
7 Mississippi State
8 Notre Dame
9 Stanford
10 Duke


S-Factor

1 UConn
2 Oregon State
3 Baylor
4 Mississippi State
5 South Carolina
6 Stanford
7 Notre Dame
8 Florida State
9 Washington
10 Duke


Omni

1 UConn
2 Baylor
3 South Carolina
4 Maryland
5 Washington
6 Florida State
7 Mississippi State
8 Notre Dame
9 Stanford
10 Duke


College Sports Madness

1 UConn
2 Baylor
3 Maryland
4 Mississippi State
5 Florida State
6 Notre Dame
7 South Carolina
8 Oregon State
9 Stanford
10 Texas


D1 Sports Net

1 UConn
2 Baylor
3 Maryland
4 Mississippi State
5 Oregon State
6 Florida State
7 South Carolina
8 Washington
9 Notre Dame
10 Stanford


LRMC

1 Baylor
2 UConn
3 Florida State
4 Washington
5 Maryland
6 South Carolina
7 Notre Dame
8 Mississippi State
9 Stanford
10 Texas



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Shades



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PostPosted: 02/06/17 7:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




_________________
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Durantula



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PostPosted: 02/06/17 8:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NC State, with an RPI of 36, looks to be the lowest rated team per RPI to make the top 16. This year is unusual because its rare in women's basketball to see many upsets but you have teams like NC State and Tennessee who have big wins but then some surprising losses. How to properly seed them, beats me.

Maryland is a 3 seed and given that they still have to play Illinois and Wisconsin, their numbers could get worse from here. If they lose one game in the regular season (Ohio State?) and once in the conference tournament, could they drop to a 4 or 5 seed?


SpaceJunkie



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Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 02/06/17 10:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Durantula wrote:
NC State, with an RPI of 36, looks to be the lowest rated team per RPI to make the top 16. This year is unusual because its rare in women's basketball to see many upsets but you have teams like NC State and Tennessee who have big wins but then some surprising losses. How to properly seed them, beats me.

Maryland is a 3 seed and given that they still have to play Illinois and Wisconsin, their numbers could get worse from here. If they lose one game in the regular season (Ohio State?) and once in the conference tournament, could they drop to a 4 or 5 seed?


Texas beating Baylor means Texas has to have jumped Maryland so Maryland is now #10. Very Happy
I think Maryland might have to have 3 more losses to drop out of the Top 16 though.

Edit: Stanford losing to UCLA would put Maryland back at #9.




Last edited by SpaceJunkie on 02/06/17 10:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 02/06/17 10:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Durantula wrote:
NC State, with an RPI of 36, looks to be the lowest rated team per RPI to make the top 16. This year is unusual because its rare in women's basketball to see many upsets but you have teams like NC State and Tennessee who have big wins but then some surprising losses. How to properly seed them, beats me.

Maryland is a 3 seed and given that they still have to play Illinois and Wisconsin, their numbers could get worse from here. If they lose one game in the regular season (Ohio State?) and once in the conference tournament, could they drop to a 4 or 5 seed?


Your two paragraphs sort of illustrate the Maryland problem. Forget the top five teams. What would Maryland's record be if they played some teams like NCSt, Tennessee, Texas, Duke. Would they have lost one or two? Good chance. Those teams aren't top ten, but they have all beaten other teams as good as Maryland.


Durantula



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PostPosted: 02/06/17 10:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
Durantula wrote:
NC State, with an RPI of 36, looks to be the lowest rated team per RPI to make the top 16. This year is unusual because its rare in women's basketball to see many upsets but you have teams like NC State and Tennessee who have big wins but then some surprising losses. How to properly seed them, beats me.

Maryland is a 3 seed and given that they still have to play Illinois and Wisconsin, their numbers could get worse from here. If they lose one game in the regular season (Ohio State?) and once in the conference tournament, could they drop to a 4 or 5 seed?


Your two paragraphs sort of illustrate the Maryland problem. Forget the top five teams. What would Maryland's record be if they played some teams like NCSt, Tennessee, Texas, Duke. Would they have lost one or two? Good chance. Those teams aren't top ten, but they have all beaten other teams as good as Maryland.


At this point I think Maryland should max out as a 3 seed. Based on the eye test I think they are a 2 seed and maybe in the mix for the 4th one seed but I think the committee is right based on the criteria they use. The thing is it would be so easy for them to have a respectable RPI, just stop playing these sub 300 RPI teams and maybe sub 250 too. Playing UConn, @ Louisville, Arizona State and Washington State on neutral floors, Duquesne on the road, some solid matchups. The guarantee games they picked killed their RPI.

I could probably construct a schedule full of teams they'd beat by 25 or more and still have a good RPI. The only logical thing I can think of is they were just wanting to play bad teams that would require the smallest payout for guarantee games, or they just assume all low to mid majors are the same. Otherwise, why play a UMass-Lowell, RPI sub 300, when you could pay George Mason to bus up to Maryland and get blown out? George Mason has an RPI of 155, so much better than UMass-Lowell but basically no chance of upsetting Maryland.


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