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pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 01/17/17 12:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
Okay. I comprehend that your projections here are purely stat-driven. I also believe that things will look remarkable different in March. What factors will be responsible for The Discrepancy?


The schedule points will go from potential to actual. For example, right now the AAC teams benefit from having UConn on their schedule. When they lose to the Hussies, those points will vanish and they'll fall in the projection. The same will happen in the majors, with winners moving up and losers moving down.

The committee doesn't go strictly on stats. Intangibles like reputation and past tournament results play a big role in their decisions. That's why Maryland is a likely #2 and possible #1 even though the numbers aren't going to support such a seed.



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Ladyvol777



Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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PostPosted: 01/17/17 12:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

By the end of the season Tennessee will be at least a # 4


purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 01/17/17 2:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
The committee doesn't go strictly on stats. Intangibles like reputation and past tournament results play a big role in their decisions. That's why Maryland is a likely #2 and possible #1 even though the numbers aren't going to support such a seed.


I think the entire Big Ten is going to be interesting to see, which I have said since a few months ago. In looking at their RPI, Maryland, Ohio State and the others behind them do NOT have very good numbers. Ohio State has very good losses but clearly didn't really play anyone other than those teams they lost to as their RPI is fairly low given their national ranking. It's going to be interesting to see where the committee ends up seeding these teams.


elsie



Joined: 08 Apr 2016
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PostPosted: 01/18/17 12:30 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Zags will be there, period...


Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 01/18/17 12:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

elsie wrote:
Zags will be there, period...


Are they going to win their conference?



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elsie



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PostPosted: 01/19/17 1:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so....


Queenie



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PostPosted: 01/19/17 8:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

elsie wrote:
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so....


They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league.



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mikeyc22



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PostPosted: 01/19/17 9:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Queenie wrote:
elsie wrote:
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so....


They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league.


Not sure at this point that there are any mid majors that are a two bid league


Fighting Artichoke



Joined: 12 Dec 2012
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PostPosted: 01/19/17 10:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mikeyc22 wrote:
Queenie wrote:
elsie wrote:
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so....


They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league.


Not sure at this point that there are any mid majors that are a two bid league


I don't think you need two worthy teams to be a 2-team league. If the leading team has an impressive enough resume on their own but lose their conference tournament, then a "1-bid conference" can have two bids. Is Green Bay that good? DePaul? (Or is the BE not a midmajor?) The American will probably have at least 2 bids, but again, do we consider them a midmajor?


mikeyc22



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PostPosted: 01/19/17 11:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Fighting Artichoke wrote:
mikeyc22 wrote:
Queenie wrote:
elsie wrote:
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so....


They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league.


Not sure at this point that there are any mid majors that are a two bid league


I don't think you need two worthy teams to be a 2-team league. If the leading team has an impressive enough resume on their own but lose their conference tournament, then a "1-bid conference" can have two bids. Is Green Bay that good? DePaul? (Or is the BE not a midmajor?) The American will probably have at least 2 bids, but again, do we consider them a midmajor?


Yeah was excluding the Big East and AAC.


Fighting Artichoke



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PostPosted: 01/20/17 11:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mikeyc22 wrote:
Fighting Artichoke wrote:
mikeyc22 wrote:
Queenie wrote:
elsie wrote:
I think they will.....Jill Barta, Laura Stockton, and Elle Tinkle will make it so....


They're gonna have to- I don't think the OOC schedule makes up for two losses to open conference play. I have a soft spot for the WCC, but I don't think it's a two-bid league.


Not sure at this point that there are any mid majors that are a two bid league


I don't think you need two worthy teams to be a 2-team league. If the leading team has an impressive enough resume on their own but lose their conference tournament, then a "1-bid conference" can have two bids. Is Green Bay that good? DePaul? (Or is the BE not a midmajor?) The American will probably have at least 2 bids, but again, do we consider them a midmajor?


Yeah was excluding the Big East and AAC.


I agree that both conferences are tweeners. So with Green Bay possibly losing their conference tourney, is the Horizon possibly the only 2-bid true midmajor conference? I can think of no other. This is definitely NOT the year of the midmajor.


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 01/23/17 12:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote



Multiple Bid Conferences
8 ACC
8 SEC
7 P12
6 B12
3 AAC
3 B10
3 BEast
2 MVC

Just Missed: Georgia Tech, Missouri, Northwestern, Drexel
Last In: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Creighton, Texas A&M

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds. In this instance two teams swapped seeds to avoid this. Arkansas-Little Rock moved up one; Arkansas moved down one.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was -2.5 points. It took 10.75 points to get a #1 seed.



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Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 01/23/17 3:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Pilight, I think you can read my mind.
I'm glad you figured out ND, but I'm not sure I'm feeling that much better about FSU.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 01/23/17 3:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
Pilight, I think you can read my mind.
I'm glad you figured out ND, but I'm not sure I'm feeling that much better about FSU.


You still haven't said who you think should be there



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Shades



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PostPosted: 01/23/17 7:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Selection Committee have Mississippi St as a #1 seed, and Maryland as the top #3 seed.



The way Mississippi St are playing so far tonight, they seem to be backing up that #1 seed.



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Durantula



Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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PostPosted: 01/23/17 8:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
The Selection Committee have Mississippi St as a #1 seed, and Maryland as the top #3 seed.



The way Mississippi St are playing so far tonight, they seem to be backing up that #1 seed.


Looks about right, only surprise to me was Kentucky but that's just because I overlooked them since they were in and out of the top 25. They have a high RPI and strength of schedule and their only "bad" loss is Colorado.


Marquette Fan



Joined: 06 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: 01/23/17 8:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
The Selection Committee have Mississippi St as a #1 seed, and Maryland as the top #3 seed.



The way Mississippi St are playing so far tonight, they seem to be backing up that #1 seed.


I like seeing two teams in that list that Marquette has beaten this season Smile - Arizona State (at home) and Oregon State (on the road)


pilight



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PostPosted: 01/23/17 8:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

UCLA surprised me a bit. Only one top 25 win, which is balanced out by the loss to Washington State.



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Shades



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PostPosted: 01/23/17 9:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Miss St went down. Pilight's looking like a genius for FSU now. Maryland? Naah



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joetro



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PostPosted: 01/23/17 9:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How on earth is UW ahead of ND? ND won H2H and has played a much tougher schedule with a much higher RPI. Yes, one more loss, but that's what happens when you play tough OOC teams. Furthermore, if Maryland was punished for poor schedule, how is UW not?


Shades



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PostPosted: 01/23/17 9:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ND lost to Tennessee, and that's still fresh.



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joetro



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PostPosted: 01/23/17 9:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It should be about way more than a game a week ago.


Durantula



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PostPosted: 01/23/17 9:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Big Ten is pretty bad this year, so Maryland has multiple sub 150 RPI games left. They could easily fall to a 4 or 5 seed as they don't have many games that will help their RPI.

Kentucky is in a similar situation. Four games minimum left against sub RPI 100 teams. They have a small margin of error in keeping a top 4 seed.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 01/23/17 10:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There will only be one P12 #2...if that. And Maryland will be a #2. Maybe Texas as well.

Washington lives in the glow of the Plum effect. They aren't that good, it's just that Plum is good enough to grab them up by the bootstraps and carry them to win against most teams. I will be very surprised if they end up as a #2. This is however, going to be a fun seeding year. It's not going to be all pre-determined as it sometimes has felt to be in years past.



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purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 01/24/17 9:24 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It is mind-boggling how "bad" Ohio State is right now. I know they are mixing in the transfers and all that, but there is no flipping way that team shouldn't be a Top 16 squad. I have always maintained that McGuff was not a very good coach (excellent recruiter) and it seems like that is playing out here. Player for player, there is as much talent on that Ohio State roster as any other team in the nation. They are just not very disciplined and don't always play as a team and much of that falls on the head coach.

And before Buckeye fans jump all over me, I know their OOC losses are at home to South Carolina, vs Baylor on a neutral court, home vs Miami, at UConn. All are understandable, however, they should not lose at home to Miami. That's the one they definitely should have gotten. But to get blown out at Michigan State, a team that Purdue swept, just should not happen this year. Ohio State's talent vs MSU isn't even close.

Anyway, this year really blows for the entire conference.


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