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pilight



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PostPosted: 01/09/17 12:35 pm    ::: The Field of 64 Reply Reply with quote



Multiple Bid Conferences
8 P12
8 ACC
8 B12
7 SEC
3 BEast
3 AAC
2 B10

Just Missed: Colorado, USC, Syracuse, Georgia Tech
Last In: St John's, Oklahoma, Auburn, Temple

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds. In this instance four teams swapped seeds to avoid this. California and Temple moved up one; Oklahoma State and Iowa State moved down one.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was -0.75 points. It took 10.75 points to get a #1 seed.



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patsweetpat



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PostPosted: 01/09/17 1:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Hey, how come my favorite team is not higher and other teams which I disfavor are not lower?! No way!!!

Sorry, pilight, I just wanted to get in the first one of those this season. I'm sure more will follow as the calendar progresses.


purduefanatic



Joined: 10 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: 01/09/17 1:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Man, I know the Big Ten is down, but holy cow, just 2 teams in as of now? Got mine in early too.


linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 01/09/17 2:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My only issue is your method of valuing wins. UConn's wins against Baylor, Maryland Florida St & Notre Dame are valued the same as their wins over DePaul & Kansas St? And should home wins be valued the same as road wins? If UConn were to win tomorrow at home vs USF would that be seen as equivalent to their wins at Fl St, Maryland or Notre Dame? UConn is the easiest example but I doubt Miss St would be a 2 seed under a weighted wins system. Other than their win over Texas, MS hasn't played a ranked team. Now I happen to think that MS is a pretty good team but maybe my proposed system would force elite level teams like Maryland or Miss St for example, to not rely on conference games against 15-25 ranked teams to pad their "top 25" record.

I've had a bigger problem with ranking systems that list top 50 wins for the same reason. Of course it's your system and your choices but why not weight wins. Give, say 50 points for a win over the No 1 team, 49 for a win over No 2, etc. down to 1 point for a win over No 50. Nothing for anything else.

Or if that seems too steep a curve then give 20 pts for a win over a top 5 team, 18 for 5-10, etc.


pilight



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PostPosted: 01/09/17 2:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
why not weight wins. Give, say 50 points for a win over the No 1 team, 49 for a win over No 2, etc. down to 1 point for a win over No 50. Nothing for anything else.


It would be a lot more work for not much gain. Increasing the variation in win values helps teams with flukey wins more than it helps teams that are actually good. Northern Iowa would jump up based solely on beating RPI #10 Kansas State. Gonzaga would suddenly be a bubble team because they beat RPI #11 Stanford.



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linkster



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PostPosted: 01/09/17 3:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
linkster wrote:
why not weight wins. Give, say 50 points for a win over the No 1 team, 49 for a win over No 2, etc. down to 1 point for a win over No 50. Nothing for anything else.


It would be a lot more work for not much gain. Increasing the variation in win values helps teams with flukey wins more than it helps teams that are actually good. Northern Iowa would jump up based solely on beating RPI #10 Kansas State. Gonzaga would suddenly be a bubble team because they beat RPI #11 Stanford.


I see your point. I guess some of my motivation is the desire to see more elite level match-ups during the regular season. But earning a high seed (or just a seeding) has become the major goal, turning much of the OOC season into little more than exhibition games against weak opposition.


pilight



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PostPosted: 01/16/17 11:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote



Multiple Bid Conferences
8 P12
8 ACC
7 B12
7 SEC
4 AAC
3 B10
2 BEast

Just Missed: Syracuse, Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Virginia
Last In: Tulane, Michigan, Mississippi, Marquette

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds. In this instance four teams swapped seeds to avoid this. Marquette and Mississippi moved up one; Georgia Tech and Oregon moved down one.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was -0.25 points. It took 11 points to get a #1 seed.



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Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 01/16/17 11:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

patsweetpat wrote:
Hey, how come my favorite team is not higher and other teams which I disfavor are not lower?! No way!!!

Sorry, pilight, I just wanted to get in the first one of those this season. I'm sure more will follow as the calendar progresses.


Well *I* am NOT sorry, pilight, to have to complain. Kansas State? REALLY!



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pilight



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PostPosted: 01/16/17 2:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
patsweetpat wrote:
Hey, how come my favorite team is not higher and other teams which I disfavor are not lower?! No way!!!

Sorry, pilight, I just wanted to get in the first one of those this season. I'm sure more will follow as the calendar progresses.


Well *I* am NOT sorry, pilight, to have to complain. Kansas State? REALLY!


That's what the numbers say



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Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 01/16/17 2:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Numbers are just numbers. They say what you program them to say.

And now you want to steal Hicks from me? Is nothing sacred in this forum?

I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised



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pilight



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PostPosted: 01/16/17 2:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised


I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3.



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Shades



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PostPosted: 01/16/17 2:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

What did ND do to deserve to go from #2 to #1... an Oregon St reality check?



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patsweetpat



Joined: 14 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 01/16/17 2:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
=I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised


pilight will be getting the money in weekly installments.


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 8151
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PostPosted: 01/16/17 5:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:



Armageddon over the Ancient Eight!

Creme today has Penn winning the Ivy at a 15 seed, while Pilight has sacred Harvard at 10.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology
pilight



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PostPosted: 01/16/17 6:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
pilight wrote:



Armageddon over the Ancient Eight!

Creme today has Penn winning the Ivy at a 15 seed, while Pilight has sacred Harvard at 10.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


Creme breaks ties among undefeated conference leaders by most wins while I use RPI. Penn is 3-0 in Ivy play while Harvard is 1-0.

However, if I did break ties his way I would also have Penn as a #15 seed.



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SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: 01/16/17 6:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised


I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3.


Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. Smile My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now.


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66773
Location: Where the action is


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PostPosted: 01/16/17 6:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised


I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3.


Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. Smile My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now.


Maryland has two top 25 wins and no top 25 games left on their schedule. That's not the resume of a #1 or #2 seed.



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SpaceJunkie



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PostPosted: 01/16/17 7:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Maryland has two top 25 wins and no top 25 games left on their schedule. That's not the resume of a #1 or #2 seed.


I guess the difference is I'm predicting the present, not the future, but Ohio St could always become a Top-25 team though that would only guarantee one more top-25 game left.


Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 01/16/17 10:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised


I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3.


Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. Smile My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now.


You both messed up (or your numbers did). ND lost to Tennessee.



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pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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Location: Where the action is


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PostPosted: 01/16/17 10:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised


I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3.


Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. Smile My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now.


You both messed up (or your numbers did). ND lost to Tennessee.


Or maybe I posted it this morning before that happened...



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Shades



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PostPosted: 01/16/17 10:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised


I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3.


Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. Smile My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now.


You both messed up (or your numbers did). ND lost to Tennessee.


Or maybe I posted it this morning before that happened...


Pilight, you know ND has been vulnerable to losses to lesser teams all year, but you decided to put ND as a #1 seed because of what your numbers told you.

Did YOU believe ND was a #1 seed this morning, and if you didn't, what's the point of this exercise?



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Last edited by Shades on 01/17/17 12:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
pilight



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PostPosted: 01/16/17 10:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised


I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3.


Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. Smile My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now.


You both messed up (or your numbers did). ND lost to Tennessee.


Or maybe I posted it this morning before that happened...


Pilight, you know ND has been vulnerable to losses to lesser teams all year, but you decided to put ND as a #1 seed despite what your numbers told you.

Did you believe ND was a #1 seed this morning, and if you didn't, what's the point of this exercise?


The numbers put ND at #1, based on what they had done through Sunday's games and the schedule they had remaining.

All the candidates for that last #1 spot have question marks. Who would you put there instead?



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FollowtheCardinalRule



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PostPosted: 01/16/17 11:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. Surprised


I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3.


Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. Smile My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now.


You both messed up (or your numbers did). ND lost to Tennessee.


Or maybe I posted it this morning before that happened...


Pilight, you know ND has been vulnerable to losses to lesser teams all year, but you decided to put ND as a #1 seed despite what your numbers told you.

Did you believe ND was a #1 seed this morning, and if you didn't, what's the point of this exercise?


The numbers put ND at #1, based on what they had done through Sunday's games and the schedule they had remaining.

All the candidates for that last #1 spot have question marks. Who would you put there instead?


Holy Coley's FIU!

Okay, in all seriousness, after today?

My 4 1 Seeds are...

UConn, Baylor, Maryland, and Mississippi State....


pilight



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PostPosted: 01/17/17 9:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FollowtheCardinalRule wrote:
My 4 1 Seeds are...

UConn, Baylor, Maryland, and Mississippi State....


So you don't care about strength of schedule. Just beat a bunch of creampuffs and schedule one or two decent opponents. That's worthy of a #1 seed.



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Howee



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PostPosted: 01/17/17 12:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Okay. I comprehend that your projections here are purely stat-driven. I also believe that things will look remarkable different in March. What factors will be responsible for The Discrepancy?



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