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Phil



Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: 11/22/16 12:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CBiebel wrote:
ClayK wrote:
The inertia of the polls drives me nuts ...

Gonzaga is unbeaten, and beat Stanford at Stanford. By 5 and led nearly the whole game.

So Gonzaga proved that right now, it is a better team than Stanford. So Stanford is 11 and Gonzaga 25, which makes no sense. Sure, Gonzaga will probably lose to FSU, but this poll is about this week ...


That's why they shouldn't have a poll until a few weeks into the season so that they can get at least some idea of where teams should be.

Of course, that will never happen.


Nor should it.

It gives us something to talk about as this thread proves.

What's the downside?

How many teams are there at the end of the season saying yeah I know we ended up missing the tournament but don't forget in week one we were ranked. Who knows, maybe some of them do cling to that. But so what where's the harm?


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 11/22/16 3:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Loved your insights, Clay.
ClayK wrote:
If my team beats your team, and we only play once, I have the better team.

Unless....you had 3 bad calls at the end of the game. Or your best player was missing that night. Or...or.... Laughing And the 'arguments' continue.

The wisest coaches certainly don't put much stock in these mercurial rankings this time of year, I'd think. February? More valid. But. It all certainly is a juicy bit of red meat for us fans, no?



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 11/22/16 4:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
Loved your insights, Clay.
ClayK wrote:
If my team beats your team, and we only play once, I have the better team.

Unless....you had 3 bad calls at the end of the game. Or your best player was missing that night. Or...or.... Laughing And the 'arguments' continue.

The wisest coaches certainly don't put much stock in these mercurial rankings this time of year, I'd think. February? More valid. But. It all certainly is a juicy bit of red meat for us fans, no?


That goes back to Rule 1: The scoreboard doesn't lie.

If Team A wins, they're better -- that's how it works in postseason.

Or here's an example: Team A loses and says "Well, we had three starters out with the flu so the loss shouldn't hurt us in the rankings." Team B says "Well, we had two starters tear ACLs in the offseason and they've never suited up, so really, we deserve to be higher based on what might have been."

It isn't about, nor should it be about, "what might have been." What happened was that one team won, and one team lost, and that means the team that won played better -- because it's not about style points or stats (except points) or coulda/woulda/shoulda. It's about the final score.

And if you weren't good enough to take the refs out of the equation, then that's your fault too ...



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shadowboxer



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PostPosted: 11/22/16 6:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
rabidrabbit wrote:
Shades wrote:
AP ranking of mid-majors
1. DePaul 256 pts (or are they like UConn, too good to be considered a mid-major?)
2. Gonzaga 62 pts
3. Marquette 18 pts
4. South Dakota St 12 pts
5. Green Bay 7 pts
6. St Louis 6 pts
7. Western Kentucky 3 pts
8. Boise St 1 pt


DePaul is in the Big East. When has the Big East been considered a mid-major? Same with Marquette.

St. Louis is in the A-10.


Rankings are always mixed and subjective. The Ivy is considered "mid-major" yet Princeton and Harvard have, at different times been squarely in the middle of the "regular" rankings. Many of the schools in the AAC are, by all definitions, at least athletically mid-majors, while BYU is considered a mid-major just because of its conference....and probably shouldn't be. Some of the schools in the Big East (not DePaul or St. John's!) probably fall in the classification of mid-major athletically. It's confusing.


Agree w/most of above. Query re mid-majors, however. Here you describe some mid-majors as more "athletic". Another mid-major site describes these teams in terms of "high" mid-majors, "low" and so on to differentiate. Any set definitions of these terms, say by SOS/RPI, etc...? Acknowledge amount of subjectivity involved with all ranking systems, just interested in any feedback on topic.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/22/16 6:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

You might as well just refer to computer rankings or the RPI. They're inflexibly based on W/L without regard for injuries or anything else.

I thought the reason we have human polls is because we want the voters to use their supposed knowledge and expertise to make judgments about what it all means and who collectively they believe is the best. Now getting decent results requires the voters take their task seriously, and of course all their parochialism and other biases come along for the ride. But I don't think they're supposed to be rigidly formulaic. That's the computers' job.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 11/22/16 6:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:


Rankings are always mixed and subjective. The Ivy is considered "mid-major" yet Princeton and Harvard have, at different times been squarely in the middle of the "regular" rankings. Many of the schools in the AAC are, by all definitions, at least athletically mid-majors, while BYU is considered a mid-major just because of its conference....and probably shouldn't be. Some of the schools in the Big East (not DePaul or St. John's!) probably fall in the classification of mid-major athletically. It's confusing.


And there are teams in the P5 conferences who are perennially in the basement of their conferences and might be better classified as mids. In the end, I guess it doesn't matter really.



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/22/16 7:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
summertime blues wrote:


Rankings are always mixed and subjective. The Ivy is considered "mid-major" yet Princeton and Harvard have, at different times been squarely in the middle of the "regular" rankings. Many of the schools in the AAC are, by all definitions, at least athletically mid-majors, while BYU is considered a mid-major just because of its conference....and probably shouldn't be. Some of the schools in the Big East (not DePaul or St. John's!) probably fall in the classification of mid-major athletically. It's confusing.


And there are teams in the P5 conferences who are perennially in the basement of their conferences and might be better classified as mids. In the end, I guess it doesn't matter really.


I don't think major/mid is a quality assessment. It's more a size/resource issue. Those cellar-dwellers are just bad majors. But being bad doesn't make them a mid.

And the term has generally referred to conferences. You are whatever your conference is.

Which is why when a mid joins a major conference they become a major, or vice versa.


Howee



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PostPosted: 11/22/16 10:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
It isn't about, nor should it be about, "what might have been." What happened was that one team won, and one team lost, and that means the team that won played better -- because it's not about style points or stats (except points) or coulda/woulda/shoulda. It's about the final score.


....said David to Goliath! (....or Donald to Hillary Laughing)

Really. But there is (IMO) a fine-but-real distinction between the team that PLAYED BETTER, and the BETTER TEAM.

ClayK wrote:
If Team A wins, they're better -- that's how it works in postseason.


"If Team A wins, they're better--FOR THE MOMENT."
IF one's season/reputation/ranking were all dependent upon a season consisting of one single game, your logic is infallible. [Now, the postseason is a different animal: you win, you survive, you lose, you're out]

But a team can prove their mettle over the course of 20-30 games, and a final record of wins and losses (especially within a conference, with 'head-to-head' games). 2 seasons ago, when Stanford beat UConn at home, but UConn won the NC, can Stanford claim they're better than the Champs, cuz UConn never beat them that year? UConn obviously erased that blemish from their collective record and would clearly be considered the superior team IN THAT SEASON, if not that night at Maples.



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 11/23/16 11:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
ClayK wrote:
It isn't about, nor should it be about, "what might have been." What happened was that one team won, and one team lost, and that means the team that won played better -- because it's not about style points or stats (except points) or coulda/woulda/shoulda. It's about the final score.


....said David to Goliath! (....or Donald to Hillary Laughing)

Really. But there is (IMO) a fine-but-real distinction between the team that PLAYED BETTER, and the BETTER TEAM.

ClayK wrote:
If Team A wins, they're better -- that's how it works in postseason.


"If Team A wins, they're better--FOR THE MOMENT."
IF one's season/reputation/ranking were all dependent upon a season consisting of one single game, your logic is infallible. [Now, the postseason is a different animal: you win, you survive, you lose, you're out]

But a team can prove their mettle over the course of 20-30 games, and a final record of wins and losses (especially within a conference, with 'head-to-head' games). 2 seasons ago, when Stanford beat UConn at home, but UConn won the NC, can Stanford claim they're better than the Champs, cuz UConn never beat them that year? UConn obviously erased that blemish from their collective record and would clearly be considered the superior team IN THAT SEASON, if not that night at Maples.


Which is Rule 2: All things being equal ...

At this point in the season, they are, but as time goes on, they're not. You can't construct a hierarchy of wins-over and losses-to, so you have to factor in judgment. But to me, by far the most important thing is what happens during the 40 minutes on the court, and which team finishes with the most points.

If you choose to discount results, then you're ignoring the foundation of this or any sport. You play the game to decide who's better, and the winner, by definition, is the better team. (That, of course, does not mean they played better, but it's not about style points -- it's about putting-the-ball-in-the-basket points. If you like style points, let's have judges alter the final score to reflect whatever characteristics are deemed to be more important than putting the ball in the basket.)



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Shades



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PostPosted: 12/19/16 1:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Week 7 poll
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/7/seasontype/2

Maryland solidly at #4 (Pat?)
Miss St biggest pretender at #5
WAS climbs to #9 to claim highest ranked PAC team
Duke climbs 1 spot despite not playing.
Stanford with the biggest drop of 4 at #14
KSU joins poll at #24
California knocking on door at #27

DePaul precipitous drop out of the poll
I ones cul-de-sac Oregon out too



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patsweetpat



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PostPosted: 12/19/16 2:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
Week 7 poll
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/7/seasontype/2

Maryland solidly at #4 (Pat?)


Since I've been summoned... Sagarin and Massey each independently rank Maryland (solidly) at #6, behind a group of 4 teams at the top that I bet you can guess, and then Florida State. And then Maryland.

But who knows? I dunno.


Shades



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PostPosted: 12/26/16 6:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Week 8 poll

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/8/seasontype/2

Same Top 11 as last week

Ohio St down 2 to #14 after loss to UConn
Duke up 2 to #15 after win over Villanova
ASU up 3 to #18 after win over Holy Cross
VTech up 4 to #19 after win over Radford
CO down 5 to #20 after loss to Wyoming
Cal up 5 to #21 after 3 wins including OK
Ore St up 3 to #22 after 3 wins including OK St
OK down 4 to #24 after loss to California
SYR down 6 to #25 after thumping by TAMU



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myrtle



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PostPosted: 12/26/16 11:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
Week 7 poll
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/7/seasontype/2

Maryland solidly at #4 (Pat?)
Miss St biggest pretender at #5


and still are. They've beaten a few sort-of teams but yet to meet any 'real' ones. I will be surprised if they are top ten by end of season.



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Phil



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PostPosted: 12/27/16 9:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I count Texas as a real team, although they've been a bit uneven.


SocksTerp



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PostPosted: 12/29/16 12:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
Shades wrote:
Week 7 poll
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/7/seasontype/2

Maryland solidly at #4 (Pat?)
Miss St biggest pretender at #5


and still are. They've beaten a few sort-of teams but yet to meet any 'real' ones. I will be surprised if they are top ten by end of season.


Terps beat Louisville and ASU, both ranked, and a decent Washington State. I'll be surprised if they are not in the top 10 at the end of the season.


Phil



Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: 12/29/16 12:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SocksTerp wrote:
myrtle wrote:
Shades wrote:
Week 7 poll
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/7/seasontype/2

Maryland solidly at #4 (Pat?)
Miss St biggest pretender at #5


and still are. They've beaten a few sort-of teams but yet to meet any 'real' ones. I will be surprised if they are top ten by end of season.


Terps beat Louisville and ASU, both ranked, and a decent Washington State. I'll be surprised if they are not in the top 10 at the end of the season.


I thought the not top ten reference was to Miss State, not Maryland.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 12/29/16 12:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Phil wrote:


I thought the not top ten reference was to Miss State, not Maryland.


It was. And I'm not saying they don't belong top 25 because IMO they do. But #5? no. Somewhere around #12 maybe.



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PostPosted: 12/29/16 9:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
Phil wrote:


I thought the not top ten reference was to Miss State, not Maryland.


It was. And I'm not saying they don't belong top 25 because IMO they do. But #5? no. Somewhere around #12 maybe.


Don't look now, but they may be #3 next week. Very Happy



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myrtle



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PostPosted: 12/29/16 9:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The higher they go, the harder they fall. Laughing But the SEC in general looks pretty weak (ducking) so maybe they rip thru their schedule (other than SoCaro) and get a #2 seed - ripe for the pickin for the right underdog! I would like to see a 7 seed like UW get a shot at 'em.



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mikeyc22



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PostPosted: 12/29/16 10:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
The higher they go, the harder they fall. Laughing But the SEC in general looks pretty weak (ducking) so maybe they rip thru their schedule (other than SoCaro) and get a #2 seed - ripe for the pickin for the right underdog! I would like to see a 7 seed like UW get a shot at 'em.


UW looking like a 2/3 seed thus far


RobStat68



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PostPosted: 01/02/17 1:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'm confused about the AP rankings beyond the top 25. Is there a list of the teas that are ranked 26-100 for example? I noticed that Duke made it back into the top 25 in week 5. They were ranked 21 and the column that shows the trending indicated that they had moved up 5 spots, so does that mean they were previously ranked at 26? I'm also curious about what Tennessee has to do before they break they break back into the top 25. they have beat some pretty good teams and I think they were dropped a little too far a little too fast previously.


PUmatty



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PostPosted: 01/02/17 1:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RobStat68 wrote:
I'm confused about the AP rankings beyond the top 25. Is there a list of the teas that are ranked 26-100 for example? I noticed that Duke made it back into the top 25 in week 5. They were ranked 21 and the column that shows the trending indicated that they had moved up 5 spots, so does that mean they were previously ranked at 26? I'm also curious about what Tennessee has to do before they break they break back into the top 25. they have beat some pretty good teams and I think they were dropped a little too far a little too fast previously.


There are no official rankings after 25, but if you look at the list of "Others Receiving Votes" you can rank a few more teams based on those votes. So a team that isn't ranked, but gets the 26th most votes could theoretically be called No. 26. This is what that "jump" in the rankings by Duke was.


linkster



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PostPosted: 01/02/17 2:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RobStat68 wrote:
.... I'm also curious about what Tennessee has to do before they break they break back into the top 25. they have beat some pretty good teams and I think they were dropped a little too far a little too fast previously.


I had the same thought as you when I saw the rankings. The loss to Penn State was bad but losing to VT doesn't look as bad now as it did at the time. But I disagree with the too far too fast part. Tenn never belonged as high as they were at the start of the season. Yeah they won 3 NCAA games but they lost 14 games and may have only made the tournament because of the name on the jersey.


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 01/02/17 3:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Tenn's next 4 games are against Vandy, Miss St, Ole Miss, and Notre Dame. Three wins will likely get them back into the Top 25, unless the teams currently in the 15-25 spots play stellar ball.


Shades



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PostPosted: 01/02/17 3:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Week 9:
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/9/seasontype/2

Notre Dame drops 5 to #7

Those that were 3-7 last week all bump up one.

UCLA top of the PAC at #9
Stanford cracks the Top 10
Ohio St up 3 to #11
Duke up 2 to #13 (the silence is golden)
Oregon St up 6 to #16
Kentucky crashes 7 to #24 after loss to Tennessee
Kansas St sneaks back on at #25 after win over previously unbeaten WVU

Colorado and Syracuse drop off the Top 25 (oh, the ACC woes continue)

Tennessee knocking on the door at #26



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