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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 01/22/16 2:46 pm ::: Why are black voters Hillary's impregnable 'firewall' |
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No matter how well Bernie does in Iowa and New Hampshire, those two states and Bernie's home state of Vermont are all lily white.
But then, saith all the political experts, Bernie will hit Hillary's African-American "firewall".
Hillary's campaign and virtually all political pundits say Bernie will be crushed by Hillary's black American vote in South Carolina, all over the South on Super Tuesday, and in the later rust belt states that have high black populations. (Similar things are said less forcefully about the Latino vote, but I'd like to focus the issue on black voters.)
Why this expectation that Hillary will dominate the black vote? Why wouldn't blacks vote for Bernie? There are two controversial historical theories, but why should either apply in this Democrat primary.
Theory 1. Blacks are knee-jerk voters who will always (since the 60's, at least) pull the lever for a Democrat. But both Bernie and Hillary are running as Democrats. So why should this theory apply?
Theory 2. Blacks will vote for the candidate offering the most free stuff. But socialist Bernie is offering even more free stuff than Hillary--e.g., free college tuition, free government health care, free family leave, a more universal and higher minimum wage. So why should this theory apply?
In sum, why the heck should black Americans, in the aggregate, vote overwhelmingly for Hillary instead of Bernie, as all the experts seem to predict. It's a touchy subject, but one that could seal the election . . . if true. |
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9604
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Posted: 01/22/16 5:28 pm ::: |
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Black voters liked Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton gets his endorsement. Black voters like Barack Obama and he gave Hillary Clinton an implicit endorsement by making her Secretary of State.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 01/22/16 6:05 pm ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
Black voters liked Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton gets his endorsement. Black voters like Barack Obama and he gave Hillary Clinton an implicit endorsement by making her Secretary of State. |
Appreciate your venturing into these important waters.
Bill Clinton was President a generation ago, so I don't know that his historical "coat tails" would extend to black voters under 30. I wonder if there's any polling that breaks down Hillary's black support by age. |
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TonyL222
Joined: 01 Oct 2007 Posts: 5140 Location: Reston, VA
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Posted: 01/22/16 7:02 pm ::: Re: Why are black voters Hillary's impregnable 'firewall' |
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GlennMacGrady wrote: |
No matter how well Bernie does in Iowa and New Hampshire, those two states and Bernie's home state of Vermont are all lily white.
But then, saith all the political experts, Bernie will hit Hillary's African-American "firewall".
Hillary's campaign and virtually all political pundits say Bernie will be crushed by Hillary's black American vote in South Carolina, all over the South on Super Tuesday, and in the later rust belt states that have high black populations. (Similar things are said less forcefully about the Latino vote, but I'd like to focus the issue on black voters.)
Why this expectation that Hillary will dominate the black vote? Why wouldn't blacks vote for Bernie? There are two controversial historical theories, but why should either apply in this Democrat primary.
Theory 1. Blacks are knee-jerk voters who will always (since the 60's, at least) pull the lever for a Democrat. But both Bernie and Hillary are running as Democrats. So why should this theory apply?
Theory 2. Blacks will vote for the candidate offering the most free stuff. But socialist Bernie is offering even more free stuff than Hillary--e.g., free college tuition, free government health care, free family leave, a more universal and higher minimum wage. So why should this theory apply?
In sum, why the heck should black Americans, in the aggregate, vote overwhelmingly for Hillary instead of Bernie, as all the experts seem to predict. It's a touchy subject, but one that could seal the election . . . if true. |
Theory 3. Blacks will vote (like every other voter) for their own best interest?
Right now that is NOT the Republican party. There is a reason that the Republican party seems to attract racist and white supremacist. It's message - party the far right - resonates with those groups. The Republican economic platforms - despite the promise and superlatives - have a proven history of widening the gap between the lower and middle class and the top.
What is your theory of why lower and middle class whites are knee jerk voters against their best interest?
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 01/22/16 7:52 pm ::: |
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Tony, this topic has NOTHING to do with the Republican party or candidates. It's about why (or if) black voters prefer Hillary Clinton, supposedly overwhelmingly, versus Bernie Sanders in the Democrat primary.
Using the language of your Theory 3, the topic is why is it more "in their own best interest" for black Americans to have Hillary Clinton as President instead of Bernie Sanders? |
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TonyL222
Joined: 01 Oct 2007 Posts: 5140 Location: Reston, VA
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Posted: 01/22/16 8:20 pm ::: |
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The answer is simple - The Clintons in general are well known with a known history on issues. Bernie Sanders is still a relative unknown - not to mention looks like one foot is already in the grave. My guess is that most AAs know where Clinton stands on the issues and believe in her ability to execute.
Bernie is making headway with younger voters of all races.
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19754
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Posted: 01/22/16 9:42 pm ::: |
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TonyL222 wrote: |
The answer is simple - The Clintons in general are well known with a known history on issues. Bernie Sanders is still a relative unknown - not to mention looks like one foot is already in the grave. My guess is that most AAs know where Clinton stands on the issues and believe in her ability to execute.
Bernie is making headway with younger voters of all races. |
Hillary has also been the most progressive candidate in both what she has previously done for African Americans (Women in children especially) and her campaign front.
Because of this (and being Bill Clinton's wife) she has gotten quite a few endorsements from important African American figures..politicians, celebrities, emotional endorsements (the mother of a victim of police violence for instance).
Bernie addresses economic equality. This certainly touches minorities, but Bernie rarely specifically addresses minority issues. (Because his main focus is always on corporation. ) It's not that he doesn't say things need to change, he just doesn't make it a focus.
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 01/23/16 12:29 am ::: |
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mercfan3 wrote: |
TonyL222 wrote: |
The answer is simple - The Clintons in general are well known with a known history on issues. Bernie Sanders is still a relative unknown - not to mention looks like one foot is already in the grave. My guess is that most AAs know where Clinton stands on the issues and believe in her ability to execute.
Bernie is making headway with younger voters of all races. |
Hillary has also been the most progressive candidate in both what she has previously done for African Americans (Women in children especially) and her campaign front.
Because of this (and being Bill Clinton's wife) she has gotten quite a few endorsements from important African American figures..politicians, celebrities, emotional endorsements (the mother of a victim of police violence for instance).
Bernie addresses economic equality. This certainly touches minorities, but Bernie rarely specifically addresses minority issues. (Because his main focus is always on corporation. ) It's not that he doesn't say things need to change, he just doesn't make it a focus. |
Without detracting from your other points, I would seriously ask what Hillary Clinton has ever done for African-Americans (or women, for that matter). I challenge anyone to name any specifics on that point during any of these phases of her political career/husband's coat tails:
- First Lady of Arkansas for 12 years
- First Lady of U.S. for 8 years
- U.S. Senator for 8 years (primary sponsored a grand total of three bills that became laws*)
- Secretary of State for 4 years
- Millionaire speech giver and presidential candidate for the past four years
_________
* The three laws she successfully sponsored are:
S. 1241: A bill to establish the Kate Mullany National Historic Site in the State of New York. Bush signed the bill Dec. 3, 2004.
S. 3613: A bill to name a post office the "Major George Quamo Post Office Building." Bush signed the bill Oct. 6, 2006.
S. 3145: A bill to designate a highway in New York as the Timothy J. Russert highway. Bush signed the bill July 23, 2008. |
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19754
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Posted: 01/23/16 2:37 am ::: |
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Her accomplishments in healthcare (SCHIP) and the Adoption and Safe Families Act and the Foster Care Independence as former first lady, Helped create the Office on Violence Against Women at the Department of Justice, Successfully fought to increase research funding for asthma at the National Institute of Health (NIH).
Among many..have all significantly impacted African Americans.
Her record with women and children in terms of human rights and healthcare is excellent, and because of who they help, it tends to make a difference for minority women and children.
On a global level, her speech about Women's rights is significant. As secretary of state, every desk officer knew the fertility rate of that country and made it a priority. Meaning Clinton put women's health a priority. That statistic tells us whether a country can feed or educate it's children.
She also met with every feminist leader who she could (who were often jailed)..this would quite often save their lives. (And do I need to talk about the importance of keeping women's rights activists alive.)
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
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TonyL222
Joined: 01 Oct 2007 Posts: 5140 Location: Reston, VA
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Posted: 01/23/16 9:20 am ::: |
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To Be honest, Glenn, my sense is this isn't really about you getting information. You have an opinion/agenda and started a thread that would allow you to express it.
Both of your proposed "theories" are denigrating. Blacks are either "knee jerk" voters (to paraphrase your words in another thread - lacking discernment and are uninformed) or lazy and just want handouts. No other possibilities come to your mind.
We can discuss other things, but I'm done with this one.
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19754
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Posted: 01/23/16 10:53 am ::: |
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TonyL222 wrote: |
To Be honest, Glenn, my sense is this isn't really about you getting information. You have an opinion/agenda and started a thread that would allow you to express it.
Both of your proposed "theories" are denigrating. Blacks are either "knee jerk" voters (to paraphrase your words in another thread - lacking discernment and are uninformed) or lazy and just want handouts. No other possibilities come to your mind.
We can discuss other things, but I'm done with this one. |
That's true as well. I ignored it in an attempt to educate though..
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5423
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Posted: 01/23/16 7:04 pm ::: |
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GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Tony, this topic has NOTHING to do with the Republican party or candidates. It's about why (or if) black voters prefer Hillary Clinton, supposedly overwhelmingly, versus Bernie Sanders in the Democrat primary.
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To be fair Glen, your theory No 1 had nothing to do with the Hilary/Bernie question you asked.
Theory 1. Blacks are knee-jerk voters who will always (since the 60's, at least) pull the lever for a Democrat.
Looks to me you had only one theory all along.
I think the republican party is very relevant. Voting is not always about who you like, it's about who you dislike.
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p_d_swanson
Joined: 01 Dec 2004 Posts: 9713
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p_d_swanson
Joined: 01 Dec 2004 Posts: 9713
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Posted: 01/31/16 2:14 am ::: |
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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VMpMq3brnq8?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vNkJ8x-8jk0?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 01/31/16 12:58 pm ::: |
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Not a very enlightening discussion so far. At least tfan, linkster and Mr. Swanson seem to understand, at least in part, my OP.
Neither of the two theories in the OP are "mine". They are exactly what I said: "controversial historical theories" that have been propounded for decades by serious political analysts and pundits.
My OP did the opposite of subscribe to either theory: It DEBUNKED both theories in the context of the Democrat primary between Sanders and Clinton.
Can you people read?
I am unpersuaded that Hillary Clinton has DONE anything more for African-American voters than Sanders has done. She did not have any official political position as a First Wife for 20 years; she did nothing at all, on any issue, as a chief sponsor of legislation in eight years as a Senator; and her job as Secretary of State precluded her participation in domestic political issues.
You might get a hint as to what my tentative hypothesis is on the alleged "firewall" theory from the quotes I put around the word both in the topic title and my OP -- namely, that the Clinton black firewall theory may itself be wrong, or at least reflexively exaggerated by the punditry class. |
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19754
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Posted: 02/04/16 8:02 pm ::: |
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Sanders campaign is starting the "Look at Hillary, she's really racist" spiel. (Following Obama to a T, I see.) Or I suppose it's possible that it's Republicans starting that. (Because Sanders isn't dumb enough to lose the general election for Clinton).
And honestly, what you wanted was a bunch of posts hinting at how horrible Hillary has been to African Americans.
And quite frankly, I don't know why I continue to respond to you because often you just cite 25 years of Republican slander (that just exists because she's a liberal woman).
But since you want specifics (not that it matters..)
We will start with Bill's presidency because Hillary was obviously an influencer there..he appointed a significant amount of African Americans. Black unemployment went down, black home ownership came up, black business ownership grew.
And yes, I know about welfare reform..(PS, most black people were actually for it, as well as for the crime bill, and I don't think it's fair to call the welfare reform a black issue anyway. Yes, proportionally more black people than white people are on welfare, but more white people are ACTUALLY on welfare than black people.)
Still, if we talk about things that disproportionally negatively effect African Americans. Hillary gets credit for her healthcare reform, stopping the credit bankruptcy bill, Arkansas education reform and rape crisis center (the first one ever in Arkansas) which would all help a higher proportion of African Americans, and also worked in child advocacy. And this is before she even truly enters her political career.
As a senator:
cosponsored a bill to end racial profiling
called for a second chance program to keep kids out of the criminal justice system
called for expanding drug courts (ending disparities in drug sentences, which are racial)
cosponsored the Drug Sentencing Reform and Cocaine Kingpin Trafficking Act of 2007, which would eliminate mandatory minimum sentencing for first-time crack cocaine possession.
cosponsored the Innocence Protection Act (makes it harder for people to get the death penalty)
cosponsored legislation that would give harsher sentences for hate crimes
Obviously as Secretary of state she couldn't do much for African Americans, she did do a lot for women, however, including (but not only) making women's health a matter of national security.
As a candidate, she's talking about prison reform, investing money for education in black communities, systemic racism and the use of police force, She's sent help to Flint Michigan (and called out that town for the racism), as well as making gun control a huge platform for her campaign.
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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Realcomplicated
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 Posts: 4281 Location: Houston, Texas
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Mysticwiz
Joined: 17 Nov 2004 Posts: 722
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Posted: 02/11/16 12:56 pm ::: |
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Quote: |
The Congressional Black Caucus' political action committee endorsed Hillary Clinton Thursday, just as the Democratic presidential candidate is set to battle with rival Bernie Sanders at a PBS-hosted debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
"After considering the entire field, there is no question in our mind and in our minds that one single candidate -- one -- possesses the patience, experience and temperament," Butterfield continued, naming Clinton.
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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/congressional-black-caucus-to-back-hillary-clinton/
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 02/11/16 4:05 pm ::: |
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Mysticwiz wrote: |
Quote: |
The Congressional Black Caucus' political action committee endorsed Hillary Clinton Thursday, just as the Democratic presidential candidate is set to battle with rival Bernie Sanders at a PBS-hosted debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
"After considering the entire field, there is no question in our mind and in our minds that one single candidate -- one -- possesses the patience, experience and temperament," Butterfield continued, naming Clinton.
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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/congressional-black-caucus-to-back-hillary-clinton/ |
Note that this is an endorsement by the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, not the Congressional Black Caucus itself, which includes Republicans and individual Democrat members, such as Barbara Lee and Jim Clyburn, who have personally refused to endorse Hillary. |
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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norwester
Joined: 14 Jun 2006 Posts: 6367 Location: Seattle
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Posted: 02/11/16 6:10 pm ::: |
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I think even in these articles, the rampant sexism in our society could not be sadly clearer. I've posted articles recently that summarized the backlash that black females experienced when supporting HRC in 2008. And here we are again treating the "black" vote as a monolith, while at the same time shaming black women if they identify with the politics HRC has embodied for decades as she fights for the rights of women and children here and around the globe.
Women are more likely than men to live in poverty. Black and other minority women are much more likely to live in poverty. I know I'll get backlash for trying to boil things down to women's rights, but what I don't get is why that's (1) ok to do, or (2) why women's rights aren't an important enough reason to do anything.
_________________ Don't you know the plural of "anecdote" is "data"?
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TonyL222
Joined: 01 Oct 2007 Posts: 5140 Location: Reston, VA
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Posted: 02/12/16 8:03 am ::: |
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Civil Rights Hero John Lewis Isn't Impressed By Bernie Sanders' Activism
"I never saw him, I never met him. I was chair of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee for three years -- 1963 to 1966," he said. "I was involved in the sit-ins, the freedom rides, the March on Washington, the march from Selma to Montgomery. I directed the board of education project for six years. I met Hillary Clinton. I met President Clinton."
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8225 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 02/12/16 9:19 am ::: |
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TonyL222 wrote: |
Civil Rights Hero John Lewis Isn't Impressed By Bernie Sanders' Activism
"I never saw him, I never met him. I was chair of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee for three years -- 1963 to 1966," he said. "I was involved in the sit-ins, the freedom rides, the March on Washington, the march from Selma to Montgomery. I directed the board of education project for six years. I met Hillary Clinton. I met President Clinton." |
Does it really matter what Hillary and Bernie were allegedly doing, if anything, 50 years ago in the Southern civil rights movement?
John Lewis's statement yesterday is probably false memory or fictional history by him. Here is what biographies say about Lewis's first meetings with Bill Clinton:
"The first time I heard of Bill Clinton was in the early '70's. . . . I think I paid more attention to him at the 1988 Democratic Convention."
Lewis does not mention Hillary at all. Not surprising. Hillary was actively working for the election of Barry Goldwater in 1964 as one of his Republican "Goldwater Girls". As she says in her autobiography: "I was an active Young Republican, and, later, a Goldwater girl, right down to my cowgirl outfit and straw cowboy hat emblazoned with the slogan 'AuH2O'."
Here's more about what Bernie was doing for civil rights in the 1960's:
Here's What Bernie Sanders Actually Did in the Civil Rights Movement |
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