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jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 21046
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012 Posts: 8407 Location: Northfield, MN
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Posted: 10/26/15 5:49 pm ::: Re: Nearing the end of the line for Jeb! |
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My guess is that there is going to be (or perhaps there already is) a push from the Republican Party to get some of these candidates out of the race so the remainder can start showing more life in the polls. There is a belief that Trump and Carson share a base of voters and so do all the rest. So to start gaining some traction they will want to narrow the field and start throwing weight behind one of the Party favorites (probably Rubio).
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8227 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 10/26/15 8:24 pm ::: |
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I'll repeat my fondest political wish: that everyone named Bush and Clinton would just go, go, go away. Far away. 35 years of Bushes and 23 years of Clintons is simply too much.
It looks like I'll get 50% of my wish granted. |
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Luuuc #NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005 Posts: 21929
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9626
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Posted: 10/26/15 8:49 pm ::: |
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Bush is polling high enough and has enough money that I think he stays in at least until the majority of the other candidates get out. I guess when they say "Bush has raised 120 million" they are including SuperPAC money which can't be used for the campaign, just advertisements. But he raised 13.4 million in the third quarter and has 10 million cash on hand. He seems to have overspent on his campaign staff, but has enough money to continue on if he gets more frugal.
Trump says he went back to meet with "mommy and daddy" this weekend, but his father is said to be super into the campaign and his brother is starting to speak up. So I don't think they are gonna advise him to get out. I think this weekend was actually about rallying donors with the aid of the brother, and maybe the father if he is up to it.
But it must be a shock for these candidates to go up against a guy who despite being raised in a very rich family and being very rich his whole life, behaves more like a guy who rose up through the ranks to lead the Brooklyn chapter of the Teamsters union.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9626
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Posted: 10/26/15 9:15 pm ::: |
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GlennMacGrady wrote: |
I'll repeat my fondest political wish: that everyone named Bush and Clinton would just go, go, go away. Far away. 35 years of Bushes and 23 years of Clintons is simply too much.
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How did you come up with those numbers?
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66920 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/26/15 9:29 pm ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
GlennMacGrady wrote: |
I'll repeat my fondest political wish: that everyone named Bush and Clinton would just go, go, go away. Far away. 35 years of Bushes and 23 years of Clintons is simply too much.
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How did you come up with those numbers? |
Yeah, it's been over 60 years of Bushes.
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scullyfu
Joined: 01 Jan 2006 Posts: 8860 Location: Niagara Falls
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jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 21046
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004 Posts: 11050 Location: Lost in D.C.
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Posted: 10/27/15 2:21 pm ::: |
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So the latest national poll has Carson and Trump in the 20s (Carson ahead, but w/in the margin of error) and no other Republican candidate in double digits. In fact, no candidate besides Carson or Trump polls higher than undecided. Bush is sitting in 4th, and no poll in the last month has had him higher than that. Even if he got all of the undecideds, he'd still be in 3rd.
As an aside, there's been some pretty amusing reporting on the polling on the Democratic side - the story on the CBS radio newscast this morning said that Sanders was still polling strongly against Clinton or something like that, and it turns out that the latest national polls have her up by 31 and 20, and the latest Iowa poll has her up by 41.
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19760
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Posted: 10/27/15 2:33 pm ::: |
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Am I the only one concerned that Ben Carson has taken the lead in the Republican party.
I figured it was a matter of time before Trump lost it, but Carson..seriously? At least I can see people who don't know much about politics going "Trump's good with money, our country needs help with money..maybe he's a good idea.." What on earth does Carson bring to the table besides crazy?
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16359 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 10/27/15 2:59 pm ::: |
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beknighted wrote: |
So the latest national poll has Carson and Trump in the 20s (Carson ahead, but w/in the margin of error) and no other Republican candidate in double digits. In fact, no candidate besides Carson or Trump polls higher than undecided. Bush is sitting in 4th, and no poll in the last month has had him higher than that. Even if he got all of the undecideds, he'd still be in 3rd.
As an aside, there's been some pretty amusing reporting on the polling on the Democratic side - the story on the CBS radio newscast this morning said that Sanders was still polling strongly against Clinton or something like that, and it turns out that the latest national polls have her up by 31 and 20, and the latest Iowa poll has her up by 41. |
Because once you take out Biden, who was never going to run, Clinton absorbs almost all those votes. Sanders has never been as close as the polls would make it seem.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16359 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 10/27/15 3:02 pm ::: |
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mercfan3 wrote: |
Am I the only one concerned that Ben Carson has taken the lead in the Republican party.
I figured it was a matter of time before Trump lost it, but Carson..seriously? At least I can see people who don't know much about politics going "Trump's good with money, our country needs help with money..maybe he's a good idea.." What on earth does Carson bring to the table besides crazy? |
That crazy is precisely what he brings to the table. As his hateful and crazy ideas have gotten more press, he has gotten more support. The GOP electorate loves those ideas.
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004 Posts: 11050 Location: Lost in D.C.
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Posted: 10/27/15 3:35 pm ::: |
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PUmatty wrote: |
beknighted wrote: |
So the latest national poll has Carson and Trump in the 20s (Carson ahead, but w/in the margin of error) and no other Republican candidate in double digits. In fact, no candidate besides Carson or Trump polls higher than undecided. Bush is sitting in 4th, and no poll in the last month has had him higher than that. Even if he got all of the undecideds, he'd still be in 3rd.
As an aside, there's been some pretty amusing reporting on the polling on the Democratic side - the story on the CBS radio newscast this morning said that Sanders was still polling strongly against Clinton or something like that, and it turns out that the latest national polls have her up by 31 and 20, and the latest Iowa poll has her up by 41. |
Because once you take out Biden, who was never going to run, Clinton absorbs almost all those votes. Sanders has never been as close as the polls would make it seem. |
I agree. The last polls in New Hampshire show him leading there (and if he doesn't win there, he's not going to win anywhere), but most of those polls still include Biden.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16359 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 10/27/15 3:58 pm ::: |
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beknighted wrote: |
PUmatty wrote: |
beknighted wrote: |
So the latest national poll has Carson and Trump in the 20s (Carson ahead, but w/in the margin of error) and no other Republican candidate in double digits. In fact, no candidate besides Carson or Trump polls higher than undecided. Bush is sitting in 4th, and no poll in the last month has had him higher than that. Even if he got all of the undecideds, he'd still be in 3rd.
As an aside, there's been some pretty amusing reporting on the polling on the Democratic side - the story on the CBS radio newscast this morning said that Sanders was still polling strongly against Clinton or something like that, and it turns out that the latest national polls have her up by 31 and 20, and the latest Iowa poll has her up by 41. |
Because once you take out Biden, who was never going to run, Clinton absorbs almost all those votes. Sanders has never been as close as the polls would make it seem. |
I agree. The last polls in New Hampshire show him leading there (and if he doesn't win there, he's not going to win anywhere), but most of those polls still include Biden. |
He might win a primary or two, but nationally this was never as close as the media and his supporters wanted to spin it into being.
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19760
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Posted: 10/27/15 4:39 pm ::: |
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PUmatty wrote: |
beknighted wrote: |
PUmatty wrote: |
beknighted wrote: |
So the latest national poll has Carson and Trump in the 20s (Carson ahead, but w/in the margin of error) and no other Republican candidate in double digits. In fact, no candidate besides Carson or Trump polls higher than undecided. Bush is sitting in 4th, and no poll in the last month has had him higher than that. Even if he got all of the undecideds, he'd still be in 3rd.
As an aside, there's been some pretty amusing reporting on the polling on the Democratic side - the story on the CBS radio newscast this morning said that Sanders was still polling strongly against Clinton or something like that, and it turns out that the latest national polls have her up by 31 and 20, and the latest Iowa poll has her up by 41. |
Because once you take out Biden, who was never going to run, Clinton absorbs almost all those votes. Sanders has never been as close as the polls would make it seem. |
I agree. The last polls in New Hampshire show him leading there (and if he doesn't win there, he's not going to win anywhere), but most of those polls still include Biden. |
He might win a primary or two, but nationally this was never as close as the media and his supporters wanted to spin it into being. |
His demo is white, educated, millennials. That's literally it.
It could win him some states (Vermont, New Hampshire, maybe make it close in Mass) in the NorthEast, but it the rest of the country votes in the primaries too.
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
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Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18031 Location: Queens
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Posted: 10/27/15 7:55 pm ::: |
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PUmatty wrote: |
mercfan3 wrote: |
Am I the only one concerned that Ben Carson has taken the lead in the Republican party.
I figured it was a matter of time before Trump lost it, but Carson..seriously? At least I can see people who don't know much about politics going "Trump's good with money, our country needs help with money..maybe he's a good idea.." What on earth does Carson bring to the table besides crazy? |
That crazy is precisely what he brings to the table. As his hateful and crazy ideas have gotten more press, he has gotten more support. The GOP electorate loves those ideas. |
Plus they can now say they're not racist, one of their best politicians is black.
_________________ Ardent believer in the separation of church and stadium.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9626
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Posted: 10/27/15 8:12 pm ::: |
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beknighted wrote: |
So the latest national poll has Carson and Trump in the 20s (Carson ahead, but w/in the margin of error) and no other Republican candidate in double digits. In fact, no candidate besides Carson or Trump polls higher than undecided. . |
Don't know/No answer is 11% among everyone they spoke to. Among Republican Primary voters it is 6% , which is below Rubio, Bush and Fiorina.
Last edited by tfan on 10/27/15 8:27 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9626
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Posted: 10/27/15 8:14 pm ::: |
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mercfan3 wrote: |
His demo is white, educated, millennials. That's literally it.
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It should be working class people everywhere with his stance on job export (but doesn't apparently understand the effects of immigration, legal and illegal) and free education and his continual refrain against income inequality. Sanders isn't as much a help for the educated because he isn't talking out against the push by CEOs lead by Mark Zuckerberg to use immigration to lower or flatten real white collar wages, the way it has blue collar wages.
At some point we may get to the point where normal people ask - "Which candidate is being pushed by the donor class?" Although, right now it looks like the Republicans are there at this moment in the campaign.
Last edited by tfan on 10/27/15 9:06 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004 Posts: 11050 Location: Lost in D.C.
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Posted: 10/27/15 8:33 pm ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
beknighted wrote: |
So the latest national poll has Carson and Trump in the 20s (Carson ahead, but w/in the margin of error) and no other Republican candidate in double digits. In fact, no candidate besides Carson or Trump polls higher than undecided. . |
Don't know/No answer is 11% among everyone they spoke to. Among Republican Primary voters it is 6% , which is below Rubio, Bush and Fiorina. |
Sorry - either I misread the Real Clear Politics poll numbers (maybe taking the composite instead of the latest poll there) or they got it wrong.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9626
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Posted: 10/27/15 9:07 pm ::: |
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mercfan3 wrote: |
What on earth does Carson bring to the table besides crazy? |
What has Carson said that you would call crazy?
I think Carson's appeal is that he is not a politician. And I don't just mean "never been a politician" like Fiorina and Trump. I mean he just says what he feels and believes. He also comes across like a good person.
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jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 21046
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Posted: 10/27/15 9:31 pm ::: |
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Wow. No. Come on. That mofo is out of his mind. As I very facetiously asked... why am I the only one who sees it. The joke is... I'm not. But obviously a lot of people can't see it. He's a psycho. Crazy as a loon. You can tell, straight off the bat, because he's a neurosurgeon who wants to be president of the United States. Start there.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9626
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Posted: 10/27/15 10:19 pm ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
beknighted wrote: |
So the latest national poll has Carson and Trump in the 20s (Carson ahead, but w/in the margin of error) and no other Republican candidate in double digits. In fact, no candidate besides Carson or Trump polls higher than undecided. . |
Don't know/No answer is 11% among everyone they spoke to. Among Republican Primary voters it is 6% , which is below Rubio, Bush and Fiorina. |
Actually, if you add "None of them" and "Someone else" to "Don't know/No answer" it gets to 9.x %, which is more than anyone but Trump or Carson.
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Posts: 19760
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Posted: 10/28/15 12:27 pm ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
mercfan3 wrote: |
What on earth does Carson bring to the table besides crazy? |
What has Carson said that you would call crazy?
I think Carson's appeal is that he is not a politician. And I don't just mean "never been a politician" like Fiorina and Trump. I mean he just says what he feels and believes. He also comes across like a good person. |
Well, we can start here.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2015/10/26/3715969/ben-carson-ridiculousness-continues/
_________________ “Anyone point out that a Donald Trump anagram is ‘Lord Dampnut’”- Colin Mochrie
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012 Posts: 8407 Location: Northfield, MN
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Posted: 10/28/15 12:43 pm ::: |
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mercfan3 wrote: |
tfan wrote: |
mercfan3 wrote: |
What on earth does Carson bring to the table besides crazy? |
What has Carson said that you would call crazy?
I think Carson's appeal is that he is not a politician. And I don't just mean "never been a politician" like Fiorina and Trump. I mean he just says what he feels and believes. He also comes across like a good person. |
Well, we can start here.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2015/10/26/3715969/ben-carson-ridiculousness-continues/ |
That dude, he nuts.
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