RebKell's Junkie Boards
Board Junkies Forums
 
Log in Register FAQ Memberlist Search RebKell's Junkie Boards Forum Index

Best draft picks ever
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    RebKell's Junkie Boards Forum Index » WNBA
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66772
Location: Where the action is


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/16/14 12:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Like with Wauters being the 'worst pick ever'. There were one or two decent options that year, but most of the other options would have been as sucky or even suckier.


There are a couple of potential ways to resolve that.

You could compare each player to the player whose score suggests they should have been taken in that slot. Compare #6 pick Jacinta Monroe to the 6th best player in her draft. The downside of that is that #1 picks can never be better than zero. Tina Charles is more than 100 points better than anyone in her draft, but still scores a zero because taking her #1 was the right choice. Basically, it only measures how wrong a pick is, it doesn't say anything about how right it was.

Alternatively, you could compare a player to the best player who was drafted after her. Compare #2 pick Marissa Coleman to the best player taken #3 or lower in her draft. The problem here is that drafts don't always distribute evenly. A thin draft like 2002 would tend to overrate the last good player taken.



_________________
Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
Mysticsfan12



Joined: 19 Sep 2014
Posts: 497



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/16/14 1:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Emma Meesseman,



_________________
MYSTAKES NO MORE
Jet Jaguar



Joined: 11 Feb 2014
Posts: 1111



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/16/14 4:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<<<------Ahemmmm!!!! Well, could have been if the Mercury weren't stupid... Confused



_________________
Oderint dum metuant - Let them hate, so long as they fear
ClayK



Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 11102



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/16/14 4:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It depends on how you do the math ... the difference is 69% of the lower number ...



_________________
Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
PUmatty



Joined: 10 Nov 2004
Posts: 16346
Location: Chicago


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/16/14 4:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
It depends on how you do the math ... the difference is 69% of the lower number ...


That means that No. 1 is 69% higher.

Regardless, it is a big difference.


Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 63711



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/16/14 7:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Which third round pick has had the longest WNBA career?

I know Hammon was undrafted so she's the most impressive in that regard, but let's keep it to third round. I have a hunch it's a battle between Kraaveld and Houston, but I'd rather refer to the data base than do the math myself.



_________________
Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66772
Location: Where the action is


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/16/14 7:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
Which third round pick has had the longest WNBA career?


Taj McWilliams

Among non-ABL players it is Dominique Canty

Among players not from the 1999 draft it is Jia Perkins



_________________
Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66772
Location: Where the action is


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/18/14 10:08 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Richyyy wrote:
Like with Wauters being the 'worst pick ever'. There were one or two decent options that year, but most of the other options would have been as sucky or even suckier.


You could compare each player to the player whose score suggests they should have been taken in that slot. Compare #6 pick Jacinta Monroe to the 6th best player in her draft.


Wauters doesn't crack the top 10 worst picks this way.

-146 Natalia Zasulskaya #12 in 1999
-127 Lisa Willis #5 in 2006
-117 Jackie Stiles #4 in 2001
-111 LaToya Thomas #1 in 2003
-111 Pam McGee #2 in 1997
-100 Tammi Reiss #5 in 1997
-99.5 Kelly Miller #2 in 2001
-97.5 Clarissa Davis-Wrightsil #22 in 1999
-94 Sandora Irvin #3 in 2005
-93.5 Jamila Wideman #3 in 1997

The Infamous Z-Woman was without a doubt the worst draft pick ever.

The three from 1997 are partly because nearly everyone from that draft got to play. The stakes were a lot higher than in any other draft.

Davis-Wrightsil just demonstrates how ridiculous the 1999 draft was that the 22nd best player scored 109. Even in a good draft year, say 2004, a score of 109 puts you in the top 10. A player who scored 109 from 2003 would have been the 2nd best player in the draft.


Anyway, the 10 best picks by this method are almost all late round gems...

134.5 Camille Little #17 in 2007
130 Cathrine Kraayeveld #27 in 2005
120 Sandy Brondello #34 in 1998
116.5 Leilani Mitchell #25 in 2008
111 Cheryl Ford #3 in 2003
110.5 Charde Houston #30 in 2008
110 Kalana Greene #13 in 2010
106.5 Elaine Powell #50 in 1999
104 Jia Perkins #35 in 2004
100.5 Tammy Sutton-Brown #18 in 2001



_________________
Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
CamrnCrz1974



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Posts: 18371
Location: Phoenix


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/20/14 4:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


ClayK



Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 11102



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/20/14 6:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.

So do you judge the pick on

a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games?



_________________
Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66772
Location: Where the action is


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/20/14 7:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.

So do you judge the pick on

a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games?


A player who doesn't show up to play is of no use at all. That means you have to sign someone to replace her. Today you could easily find a passable player to fill the roster spot. In 2000, when there were 16 teams and the league just expanded by four teams, the pool of available talent was at an all time low. That makes a no-show player even more damaging than she would be today. Tulsa misses Liz Cambage much less than Cleveland missed Wauters,


Even if Wauters had shown up she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Yeah, she's better than Latoya Thomas. Probably better than McCarville or Harding. Too early to tell about Chiney Ogwumike. That's about the extent of other #1s she would rank ahead of. Nneka Ogwumike is already as good or better than Wauters ever was. I can't fathom any reason to take peak!Wauters over peak!Dydek. Past that the comparisons become ridiculous.



_________________
Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
CamrnCrz1974



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Posts: 18371
Location: Phoenix


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/21/14 11:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
ClayK wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.

So do you judge the pick on

a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games?


A player who doesn't show up to play is of no use at all. That means you have to sign someone to replace her. Today you could easily find a passable player to fill the roster spot. In 2000, when there were 16 teams and the league just expanded by four teams, the pool of available talent was at an all time low. That makes a no-show player even more damaging than she would be today. Tulsa misses Liz Cambage much less than Cleveland missed Wauters,


Even if Wauters had shown up she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Yeah, she's better than Latoya Thomas. Probably better than McCarville or Harding. Too early to tell about Chiney Ogwumike. That's about the extent of other #1s she would rank ahead of. Nneka Ogwumike is already as good or better than Wauters ever was. I can't fathom any reason to take peak!Wauters over peak!Dydek. Past that the comparisons become ridiculous.


Good point (and a fair one) about players not showing up and having to replace them (I feel like I am Kevin Pelton about to go into the WARP discussion). And context is certainly important. The talent level in the league is certainly greater now, both in terms of quality of players and depth.

At the same time, Wauters played in all or part of 8 WNBA seasons and averaged 10.8 points (on 53.8 shooting) and 5.5 rebounds per game for her career.

Mills played three full WNBA seasons and a total of nine games in two other seasons (meaning all or part of 5 WNBA seasons) and averaged 2.7 points (on 38.3 percent shooting) and 2.6 rebounds for her career.

Wauters was the #1 pick in 2000; Mills was #2. Wauters may be the worst #1 pick, but I would still take her over Mills. Wauters performed when she did show up; Mills never performed.


CamrnCrz1974



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Posts: 18371
Location: Phoenix


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/21/14 11:13 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Disagreements or questions aside, kudos to pilight for putting all of this together and giving us interesting topics for debate and discussion!!!


sigur3



Joined: 18 Jun 2013
Posts: 6191
Location: Chicago-ish


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/21/14 5:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
ClayK wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Wauters may be the worst ever, relative to position and production.

Tausha Mills may be the fourth-worst ever overall.

But I would argue that Wauters was a better player and more certainly productive than Mills head-to-head.


It's really not clear ... sure, Wauters didn't show up, but she was an actual basketball player.

So do you judge the pick on

a) whether the player was actually very good; or
b) whether the player, for whatever reason, played very many games?


A player who doesn't show up to play is of no use at all. That means you have to sign someone to replace her. Today you could easily find a passable player to fill the roster spot. In 2000, when there were 16 teams and the league just expanded by four teams, the pool of available talent was at an all time low. That makes a no-show player even more damaging than she would be today. Tulsa misses Liz Cambage much less than Cleveland missed Wauters,


Even if Wauters had shown up she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Yeah, she's better than Latoya Thomas. Probably better than McCarville or Harding. Too early to tell about Chiney Ogwumike. That's about the extent of other #1s she would rank ahead of. Nneka Ogwumike is already as good or better than Wauters ever was. I can't fathom any reason to take peak!Wauters over peak!Dydek. Past that the comparisons become ridiculous.


If you say that Nneka is a better player than Wauters already, you could easily make the same argument for Chiney. Her rookie season was more impressive than any of Wauters' years in the WNBA. I know you meant that it's too early to tell whether she'll have a better career, but I'd say that she's well on her way, having already surpassed Wauters quite a few of Ann's career highs...


p_d_swanson



Joined: 01 Dec 2004
Posts: 9713



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/21/14 10:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Simply ranking the players by career Win Shares, it's apparent that we could redraft 2000 into infinity and Wauters would always be one of the first two players selected. For a quick frame of reference, Chiney Ogwumike has already accumulated 4.7 career Win Shares, Nneka is up to 17.0, and Prahalis is at -0.8 through 2014:
Code:
 #  Player               Tm   CrWS
--  -------------------  ---  ----
 1  Ann Wauters          CLE  19.8
 6  Betty Lennox         MIN  17.1
 9  Kamila Vodichkova    SEA  13.4
51  Kristen Rasmussen    UTA  12.9
21  Adrian Williams      PHO   6.0
17  Helen Darling        CLE   5.7
26  Jurgita Streimikyte  IND   4.6
63  Nicky McCrimmon      LAS   3.1
 8  Tamicha Jackson      DET   2.6
23  Stacey Thomas        POR   2.4
16  Elena Shakirova      HOU   1.5
 4  Cintia dos Santos    ORL   1.4
 5  Grace Daley          MIN   1.4
11  Summer Erb           CHA   1.4
25  Charisse Sampson     SEA   1.2
14  Katy Steding         SAC   1.1
30  Stacy Clinesmith     SAC   0.9
22  Marla Brumfield      MIN   0.8
 7  Lynn Pride           POR   0.7
10  Maylana Martin       MIN   0.7
35  Stacy Frese          UTA   0.6
27  Tiffany Travis       CHA   0.5
 2  Tausha Mills         WAS   0.4
18  Tonya Washington     WAS   0.2
24  Keitha Dickerson     MIN   0.2
12  Naomi Mulitauaopele  UTA   0.1
13  Olga Firsova         NYL   0.1
28  Madinah Slaise       DET   0.1
31  Paige Sauer          LAS   0.1
56  Shanele Stires       MIN   0.1
58  Renee Robinson       IND   0.1
15  Nicole Kubik         LAS   0.0
29  Desiree Francis      NYL   0.0
46  Rhonda Banchero      SAC  -0.1
52  Roman Hamzova        ORL  -0.1
40  Milena Flores        MIA  -0.2
42  Usha Gilmore         IND  -0.2
45  Jessica Bibby        NYL  -0.2
57  Katrina Hibbert      SEA  -0.2
53  Shantia Owens        PHO  -0.3
 3  Edwina Brown         DET  -0.4
20  Jannon Roland        ORL  -0.5
32  Andrea Garner        HOU  -0.6
19  Jameka Jones         MIA  -0.8


ClayK



Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 11102



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/22/14 10:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That list brings back a lot of memories ... some good, some not.



_________________
Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
Luuuc
#NATC


Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 21900



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/22/14 7:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
That list brings back a lot of memories ... some good, some not.


Yeah, lots of good memories, including CLE, UTA, DET, POR, HOU, ORL, CHA, SAC, MIA, ...



_________________
Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.
Jet Jaguar



Joined: 11 Feb 2014
Posts: 1111



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/23/14 3:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

p_d_swanson wrote:
Simply ranking the players by career Win Shares, it's apparent that we could redraft 2000 into infinity and Wauters would always be one of the first two players selected. For a quick frame of reference, Chiney Ogwumike has already accumulated 4.7 career Win Shares, Nneka is up to 17.0, and Prahalis is at -0.8 through 2014:

Win Shares is a completely meaningless stat that in no way should be used to evaluate a player. How many win shares do you expect a player to get on a team that only won 7 games? And the other seasons by Prahalis she didn't play enough to even use that stat, meaningless as it is.



_________________
Oderint dum metuant - Let them hate, so long as they fear
Richyyy



Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 24326
Location: London


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/23/14 5:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Jet Jaguar wrote:
How many win shares do you expect a player to get on a team that only won 7 games?

DeWanna Bonner finished with 3.2. Prahalis was 13th on the team.



_________________
Independent WNBA coverage: http://www.wnbalien.com/
Jet Jaguar



Joined: 11 Feb 2014
Posts: 1111



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/25/14 11:58 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Jet Jaguar wrote:
How many win shares do you expect a player to get on a team that only won 7 games?

DeWanna Bonner finished with 3.2. Prahalis was 13th on the team.

Shows how much you know. You pretend to be an expert at everything. And you aren't. You're comparing her to players who hardly got any time. .5, .6, -.3, -.6, like it really matters. None of them are good. And you can't expect them to be on a bad team. That's why it's a completely useless stat for evaluating players. I guess Andrea Riley is a better player because her Win Shares was a higher negative number? Rolling Eyes



_________________
Oderint dum metuant - Let them hate, so long as they fear
PRballer



Joined: 18 Apr 2007
Posts: 2535



Back to top
PostPosted: 10/28/14 9:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

KEITHA DICKERSON. Small 4 from Texas Tech who actually stuck on a team. Wow, blast from the past.


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66772
Location: Where the action is


Back to top
PostPosted: 10/12/15 10:18 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How does the class of 2011 stack up?

As a whole the class produced 1755.5 value points. That's 10th best out of 15 drafts. It's the best since 2008.

Nobody in the class of 2011 came close to being the worst pick ever. Liz Cambage, the #2 pick, grades out 9th and Amber Harris, the #4 pick, grades out 12th on the worst pick ever list.

Ta'Shia Phillips ranks as the worst ever #8 pick. Jasmine Thomas ranks as the best ever #12 pick. Karima Christmas ranks as the best ever #23 pick. Krystal Thomas ranks as the best ever #36 pick.

The steal of the draft was Jasmine Thomas, who played all 170 games, starting 115 of them, as the #12 pick.

The bust of the 2011 draft was Liz Cambage, who played 53 games (27 starts) as the #2 pick.



_________________
Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66772
Location: Where the action is


Back to top
PostPosted: 09/20/16 8:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How does the class of 2012 stack up?

As a whole the class produced 1296 value points. Only 2003 had fewer.

Nobody in the class of 2012 came close to being the worst pick ever

Astan Dabo is the first #9 pick to not play in the league, and thus was the worst ever #9 pick. Nobody in the 2012 draft was the best ever at their draft slot.

Steal of the draft was Lynetta Kizer, who played 146 games, with 27 starts, as the #29 pick.

The bust of the 2012 draft was Samantha Prahalis, who played 41 games (30 starts) as the #6 pick.


NOTE: I made the assumption that Nneka Ogwumike would be All WNBA this season and no one else from the class of 2012 would join her. If this proves to be in error, I will refigure.



_________________
Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
Luuuc
#NATC


Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 21900



Back to top
PostPosted: 09/20/16 8:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




_________________
Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.
justintyme



Joined: 08 Jul 2012
Posts: 8407
Location: Northfield, MN


Back to top
PostPosted: 09/20/16 8:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:

LMAO.




_________________
↑↑↓↓←→←→BA
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    RebKell's Junkie Boards Forum Index » WNBA All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
Page 3 of 5

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB 2.0.17 © 2001- 2004 phpBB Group
phpBB Template by Vjacheslav Trushkin