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linkster
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ClayK
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 Posted: 08/08/14 6:54 pm ::: |
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So ...
UConn lost two very good players who are playing regularly in the WNBA, and is very thin in the post.
South Carolina has everyone back but hasn't been tested at the very top level and wasn't in UConn's league last year.
Notre Dame lost two very good players (top two scorers).
Tennessee has disappointed for the past several years. Plenty of talent but why should this year be any different than the recent past?
Texas is completely unproven.
Louisville lost a ton of talent.
Maryland lost Alyssa Thomas, who was the heart of the team.
North Carolina's coaching is always a question mark, and losing DeShields is an issue.
Duke is a perennial underachiever.
So I have plenty of reasons not to pick a number one team, but I don't seem to have any real reason to choose one of the contenders over the others.
I guess it's UConn by default, and though this may be a very interesting year, it doesn't seem like a good season for memorable teams.
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patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010
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| Posted: 08/08/14 7:49 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
So ...
UConn lost two very good players who are playing regularly in the WNBA, and is very thin in the post.
South Carolina has everyone back but hasn't been tested at the very top level and wasn't in UConn's league last year.
Notre Dame lost two very good players (top two scorers).
Tennessee has disappointed for the past several years. Plenty of talent but why should this year be any different than the recent past?
Texas is completely unproven.
Louisville lost a ton of talent.
Maryland lost Alyssa Thomas, who was the heart of the team.
North Carolina's coaching is always a question mark, and losing DeShields is an issue.
Duke is a perennial underachiever.
So I have plenty of reasons not to pick a number one team, but I don't seem to have any real reason to choose one of the contenders over the others.
I guess it's UConn by default, and though this may be a very interesting year, it doesn't seem like a good season for memorable teams. |
With UConn coming into this season waving back-to-back banners, sporting the best shooter in basketball in addition to the best player in basketball, and being led by a coach with 9 rings on his fingers, I think UConn is-- MUST be-- an *incredibly* easy call as pre-season favorite. Nothing default-ish about it. I don't think it's particularly close, and I'm actually very surprised that we're even discussing it.
I'd genuinely be shocked if UConn did not win it all in Tampa Bay.
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dinkytown
Joined: 18 Sep 2011
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| Posted: 08/08/14 10:10 pm ::: |
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| patsweetpat wrote: |
With UConn coming into this season waving back-to-back banners, sporting the best shooter in basketball in addition to the best player in basketball, and being led by a coach with 9 rings on his fingers, I think UConn is-- MUST be-- an *incredibly* easy call as pre-season favorite. Nothing default-ish about it. I don't think it's particularly close, and I'm actually very surprised that we're even discussing it.
I'd genuinely be shocked if UConn did not win it all in Tampa Bay. |
Agreed. I wouldn't be shocked if UCONN or South Carolina won it all. Anyone else I would be.
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Rock Hard
Joined: 02 Aug 2010
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| Posted: 08/09/14 7:42 pm ::: |
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| dinkytown wrote: |
| patsweetpat wrote: |
With UConn coming into this season waving back-to-back banners, sporting the best shooter in basketball in addition to the best player in basketball, and being led by a coach with 9 rings on his fingers, I think UConn is-- MUST be-- an *incredibly* easy call as pre-season favorite. Nothing default-ish about it. I don't think it's particularly close, and I'm actually very surprised that we're even discussing it.
I'd genuinely be shocked if UConn did not win it all in Tampa Bay. |
Agreed. I wouldn't be shocked if UCONN or South Carolina won it all. Anyone else I would be. |
I have been following sports for a very long time and preseason predictions are a crap shoot. Any team that is the overwhelming favorite before a season begins can have one or two key injuries and throw their season into a tailspin. I like to get feel how the top teams are playing that current season before making a prediction on what team will win the top trophy.
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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| Posted: 08/09/14 8:49 pm ::: Yep |
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Very good point.
If you looked at last years thread, the predictions would certainly not have the final four teams in Nashville!
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patsweetpat
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| Posted: 08/10/14 10:11 am ::: |
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| If anyone wants to bet that UConn *won't* be in the Final 4 this year, I will bet them any amount of money. Literally, any cash sum they wish to put down. Eleventy jillion. Whatever.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 08/10/14 8:55 pm ::: |
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| patsweetpat wrote: |
| If anyone wants to bet that UConn *won't* be in the Final 4 this year, I will bet them any amount of money. Literally, any cash sum they wish to put down. Eleventy jillion. Whatever. |
Well that's quite a giant step back from your claim above that UConn is such an iron clad #1 we shouldn't even be discussing it.
Not exactly sticking your neck out predicting a FF. Of course they will be. They'll be a #1 seed considering they will be their conf and conf tournament champ, will have 21 lock wins against conf opponents, only have at most 4 and more realistically 2 games they could posibly lose out of conference, and will have the folks in Bristol hyping the home team all season. So then they will play the first two games at home, and the next two 100 miles from home in Albany, and there is zero chance that they won't be in Tampa.
I haven't seen anyone suggest UConn isn't a top four, or even a top two, have you?
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linkster
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 08/11/14 4:12 pm ::: |
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| My only doubts about UConn are depth. If Stokes gets hurt, and Tuck is still hobbled, the Huskies don't have much up front.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 08/11/14 11:51 pm ::: |
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There is no height backup to Stokes, and some fans are putting an awful lot of expectations on her scoring performance. I'm not sure why.
Last season as a junior Stokes did a good job rebounding (7.1 rpg) in her 723 minutes, when she was essentially the only bench player in the tournament rotation. But her scoring average was exactly the same as in her freshman year, 4.5 ppg. The freshman Saniya Chong, who was generally considered somewhat of a bust, scored eight more points than Stokes on the season in 58 fewer minutes, for an average of 4.8 ppg.
Stokes has been offensively soft for three years, so the odds are that that won't change in her senior year.
If Tuck recovers reasonably from her highly risky cartilage implantation surgery, she would be a much better offensive starter than Stokes. That would put Rebecca Lobo's "Goofy White Mamba" in the middle. |
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linkster
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| Posted: 08/12/14 10:35 am ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
| My only doubts about UConn are depth. If Stokes gets hurt, and Tuck is still hobbled, the Huskies don't have much up front. |
Yeah, just the 2 best players in D1 wbb.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 08/12/14 10:56 am ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
| My only doubts about UConn are depth. If Stokes gets hurt, and Tuck is still hobbled, the Huskies don't have much up front. |
Yeah, just the 2 best players in D1 wbb. |
I will grant Breanna Stewart is one of the two best players in the game, and I guess she's a power forward ... but she's not exactly a postup player and I don't know if she will guard big, strong centers. She could do both, certainly, but it would seem to me her value is higher further from the basket on offense, and being more mobile on defense.
I'm guessing the other is Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, who I see as a two guard, though she is a good rebounder for her size. Maybe she's a three, but I don't consider her an "up front" player -- though maybe you're thinking of someone else.
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linkster
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| Posted: 08/12/14 12:00 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
| linkster wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
| My only doubts about UConn are depth. If Stokes gets hurt, and Tuck is still hobbled, the Huskies don't have much up front. |
Yeah, just the 2 best players in D1 wbb. |
I will grant Breanna Stewart is one of the two best players in the game, and I guess she's a power forward ... but she's not exactly a postup player and I don't know if she will guard big, strong centers. She could do both, certainly, but it would seem to me her value is higher further from the basket on offense, and being more mobile on defense.
I'm guessing the other is Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, who I see as a two guard, though she is a good rebounder for her size. Maybe she's a three, but I don't consider her an "up front" player -- though maybe you're thinking of someone else. |
Lewis may be a 2 in your mind but she has played the 3 for her first 3 years and while her primary role is as a perimeter scorer, she is quite good in the low post both as a rebounder and a scorer, with an array of tricky shots that actually go in. If Davis can play the 4 at 5'11", so can Lewis.
But getting back to your original comment, if you have doubts about UConn's depth what would happen to Notre Dame if Loyd and Reimer get hurt? Who would pick up the scoring and rebounding?
What about Tenn? If Massengale has another concussion her career may be over. Tucker needs to try and come back from her second ACL and Russell is battling foot problems that required extensive surgery. None are even working out yet. But Tenn will be a preseason top 4 team in the minds of wcbb "experts".
Projecting injuries in order to have doubts about a team is reaching. I can't think of any team that wouldn't have problems if their starting 5 and 4 (one of which is their leading scorer) were to be lost. Maybe SC who seems to have a forest of trees on their roster this year.
People have been writing off Notre Dame in the pre-season for several years now, citing how much they lost and yet they made the FF each year. Too much is made of who is gone.
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themick1952
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 08/12/14 1:21 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
| My only doubts about UConn are depth. If Stokes gets hurt, and Tuck is still hobbled, the Huskies don't have much up front. |
I guess I'm parroting Linkster, but what team wouldn't you have doubts about if they lose two of their top post players?
For example...
Reimer and Turner for ND
Harrison and Burdick for Tennessee
Ibiam and Coates for South Carolina
Mavunga and McDaniels at UNC
Now take all those away from those teams and take away Tuck and Stokes from Uconn.
Who has the best lineup left?
I believe you predicted ND would win it all based on Dolson being injured last year. How'd that work out for ya?
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linkster
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| Posted: 08/12/14 4:03 pm ::: |
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Clay's predictions about about UConn; this year and last:
13/14 - 2. Connecticut
Key Players: Stefanie Dolson, Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, Breanna Stewart
The Skinny: Its just too easy to pick UConn. Everyone but Kelly Faris is back from the national champs, which is why so many people are sure Connecticut will get another title. But it says here the Huskies are too thin up front to repeat.
http://www.slamonline.com/the-magazine/features/womens-college-basketball-ncaa-preview/
And 14/15 - "My only doubts about UConn are depth. If Stokes gets hurt, and Tuck is still hobbled, the Huskies don't have much up front."
Again with the thin argument? Well, that "thin" front line last year set an NCAA record for blocked shots and was the primary reason UConn won a NC. Interestingly, Clay did say that without Achonwa ND was toast but didn't find their front line thin at all when he picked them as No 1.
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009
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| Posted: 08/12/14 5:36 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
| My only doubts about UConn are depth. If Stokes gets hurt, and Tuck is still hobbled, the Huskies don't have much up front. |
I interpret this as implying there are more doubts with the other top teams (which is corroborated by Clay's post at the top of this page).
I don't think there is any doubt post depth is a weakness. Does it mean they won't make it back to the Final Four? Not in my book, or any other poster's in this thread. It's just a clear weakness on an otherwise strong team.
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singinerd54
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| Posted: 08/12/14 5:39 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| If Davis can play the 4 at 5'11", so can Lewis. |
There is more to playing a position than your height. Davis and KML may be the same height, but their abilities and games are nothing alike.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 08/12/14 5:46 pm ::: |
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Good points, linkster ...
Here's one thing: For Slam, I try to avoid the obvious, which means I look for reasons not to pick UConn No. 1 (or not to pick Baylor the year before). It's entertainment, in part, and encouraging discussion is fun.
My pick of Notre Dame wasn't that far off, and I did get Baylor not going all the way. And I do think if Stewart or Stokes gets hurt, it will be hard for UConn -- though of course if Loyd gets hurt it will be hard for Notre Dame, if Boyd or Gray gets hurt, it will be hard for Cal.
And I don't know if they kept my lead on the on-line piece, but I did write that lack of depth was a pretty common theme this season, and injuries would be more important than usual.
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linkster
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| Posted: 08/12/14 6:42 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
Good points, linkster ...
Here's one thing: For Slam, I try to avoid the obvious, which means I look for reasons not to pick UConn No. 1 (or not to pick Baylor the year before). It's entertainment, in part, and encouraging discussion is fun.
My pick of Notre Dame wasn't that far off, and I did get Baylor not going all the way. And I do think if Stewart or Stokes gets hurt, it will be hard for UConn -- though of course if Loyd gets hurt it will be hard for Notre Dame, if Boyd or Gray gets hurt, it will be hard for Cal.
And I don't know if they kept my lead on the on-line piece, but I did write that lack of depth was a pretty common theme this season, and injuries would be more important than usual. |
I understand why you didn't pick UConn and why you didn't pick Baylor. But I disagree with the rankings. Let me explain. My background is in the gambling side of horse racing where "experts" rate horses daily and also make daily picks. The entries are rated on where the expert thinks their odds will end up. Then picks are made. If a race has, say 5 entries the predicted odds may be listed as:
1 - 4-1
2 - 2-5
3 - 5-2
4 - 11-1
5 - 4-1
An expert making selections may not pick the 2-5 favorite but it will be due to the greater expected payoff, not that he/she thinks his pick of say the 5 is a better horse. In wcbb the "expected payoff" is greater for you if you correctly pick any team other than UConn and they come through. The difference is that the handicapper doesn't say his/her pick is a better horse, just a better bet.
If I was creating a line for wcbb in 14/15 it might look something like:
UConn - 1-9
Notre Dame - 6-5
S Carolina - 6-1
Tenn - 6-1
field - 15-1 (the field means you get everyone else)
Now if someone picks any of the above they can justify it by the odds.
But I reviewed the "pick threads" from last year and generally posters were concerned with UConn only having 9 scholarship players. It sounded realistic at the time but in actuality they won with 8, and only 6 actually played much in the crunch. Their "thin" front line dominated every team but BYU and IMO was among the best 5-4-3 combos ever. In horse racing a reason to pick against the prohibitive favorite might be that the race is a bit longer or shorter than the horse's preferred distance but if the horse then went out and won by 20 lengths I wouldn't dare use the same reason the next time they raced.
Some day injuries will derail a UConn team again but it's not a good bet to count on it in any given year.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 08/13/14 9:40 am ::: |
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Betting against UConn in recent years would not have been a good strategy, nor will it be this year.
Great coaching+great players=Heavy favorite.
But injuries, luck and the unexpected find a way to get involved, which is what makes sports so much fun.
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 08/13/14 10:35 am ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
Betting against UConn in recent years would not have been a good strategy, nor will it be this year.
Great coaching+great players=Heavy favorite.
But injuries, luck and the unexpected find a way to get involved, which is what makes sports so much fun. |
They've also nearly always had a size advantage, especially against ND, and they'll be big again next year, but this year are quite normal, smaller than some opponents, and with a PF in the post rather than a C, just like most teams.
As I say every year, college BB rosters change annually. The issue isn't who you lose, its how you replace the losses.
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joetro
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| Posted: 08/14/14 2:45 pm ::: |
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| ND's best post player didn't play in the NC game, which isn't something Clay could have foreseen in his earlier post.
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Oldfandepot2
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| Posted: 08/14/14 3:28 pm ::: |
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| joetro wrote: |
| ND's best post player didn't play in the NC game, which isn't something Clay could have foreseen in his earlier post. |
She played the year before in the FF when Stewart had her coming out party.
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